diatone

AIUI: my intuition is Alex and Alice are points in the distribution. They don’t think about their experience in terms of population statistics. They see their individual latency times, and use that as their sample. If t is low in their experience, great the distribution is low.

But for any t that goes high that they observe (which tends to be the case in a skewed distribution such as service latencies), it drags their impression of the distribution up, dominating the shape of that impression.

First word of second sentence:

> Stability

ie: lack of volatility, ie: integrity, ie: I know it does what it says and don’t have to second guess that.

If we can just simulate the business accurately enough we can solve having to interact with the market… which is also trying to solve interacting with us… We just need to do it more accurately…

Something tells me people will still be in the mix here.

A cursory glance does make it appear like either a prolific individual, or a bot. The fact that the novel bears little relation to the analytics posts, which seem to bear the style of LLM prose, makes the whole thing fishy. Ironic given the subject matter of TFA

Revenue recognition for private companies generally is less precise than for public companies, which in the US are obligated to report under GAAP, which uses a different indicator than annualised revenue so public companies are comparable.

It makes sense to scrutinise Anthropic’s revenue in the lead up to IPO on those grounds; their AR figure simply isn’t comparable to revenue numbers from other firms.

However it doesn’t make sense to be sensational about this - iirc reporting GAAP revenue is a necessary condition of going public so the chickens will come home to roost one way or another.

So if the benefits haven’t accrued to you, it must have gone to your customers right?

If your students were growing up to subvert your line of work, sure. Pretty sure that’s not the case though!

Yep agree it looks like it’s taking the existing generated artefact, parameterising it within an inch of its life, exposing a pseudo WYSIWYG for the parameters and calling it a day with a few export options. Not a huge leap from what they’ve got already but it’s a clever adjacent step for sure. Same product new chrome.

You’re illustrating one of the points of TFA - a team that is equipped with the right tools to measure feature usage (or reliably correlate it to overall userbase growth, or retention) and hold that against sane guardrail metrics (product and technical) is going to outperform the team that relies on a wizardly individual PM or analyst over the long term making promises over the wall to engineering.

Until they’re using consistent methods of reporting those figures, they’re not comparable. Same as any other company pre vs post IPO