dgacmu

Joined 13 years ago

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Feb 12
CTO and founder, Enriched Ag. Computer science professor at Carnegie Mellon University. Ex- university of Utah, MIT, Google Brain.

http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~dga/

Of the firm belief that distributed systems is the coolest area ever, followed by computer science in general. Yes, I'm a bit biased.

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Recent submissions

Comment · 4 hours ago
That doesn't math all that well. The coefficient of performance of a heat pump is better when the outdoor temp is higher - did you mean the temp outside is -above- 20F?

You're also assuming time of use billing, I assume.

I don't disagree, btw - gas is cheaper than a heat pump for me also, which makes me sad. My only point was that you have to compare against them and not resistance heating. (That's slightly wrong - if I were to use a heat pump during the shoulder season and my boiler when it's colder it would be cheaper in operating costs but lose on capex)

Comment · 11 hours ago
Because these are bad comparisons, a heat pump water heater and a heat pump house heater use substantially less electricity. Resistance heating sucks and will lose to burning gas locally.
Comment · 2 days ago
It does, but the video is later than their original profile and not linked, and I thought it was interesting actually seeing him in action. It's one of the higher quality videos of him.
Comment · 2 days ago
Comment · 3 days ago
But we generally don't need to satisfy the peak with battery - peak US demand occurs while the sun is still up, in July, so you can satisfy a large chunk of that with solar still. The hard part is those ~4 hours after solar stops producing enough and it's still hot and people are still up. So what we need is several hours of about half the gap between {nuclear, wind, hydro} and peak. Remembering that we also use even non-pumped hydro as a form of storage, by drawing on it more in the periods just before and just after sunrise/sunset.

For example, if you look at the energy production across PJM from two days ago: https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:hiovtnl...

(Using that b/c I run the bot and it's data I'm very familiar with. You can see similar patterns in CAISO but they've already got so much solar it's a little more messy/duck-curved by all of the behind-the-meter solar.)

You can see hydro coming online from roughly 16:00 - 23:00. There's still a big gas peak that we'd need a lot of storage to shave, and you're right that it's a long way to go before we do that, but it's not quite as bad as "we need enough battery to satisfy 100% peak demand".

Comment · 4 days ago
Not with the disrespect they've shown to Arsenic, Astatine, Barium, ...,
Comment · 4 days ago
They finally gave the $20/month pro tier access to argon in antigravity so I tried it a few days ago on one small thing and ...

it actually did really well.

But it still annoys me: I told it to _tell_ me something, and instead it _implemented_ the something. The previous models were way too eager to just jump in and do and this one seems no different. But the optimization it identified was both really solid and just a good engineering choice, and better than what Opus had been suggesting.

It also gave pretty good feedback on a bit of writing.

Comment · 6 days ago
I agree with the threat to the expensive providers but why is openrouter use representative of overall token spend when you'd think many companies are buying directly from anthropic or openai?
Comment · 8 days ago
You're mis-reading my post. _Pittsburgh_'s air isn't great. The air inside my house is great, thanks to a lot of air filters.

The greater Pittsburgh region is #11 on the most polluted cities in the US by short-term particle pollution: https://www.lung.org/research/sota/city-rankings/most-pollut...

It's not Mumbai. But it's bad by US standards.

The thing that's not fully optimized are the CO2 levels in my house. As I've continued improving the air sealing in the house to reduce my heating and AC costs, it's something I want to address a little more in the future through active ventilation.

Comment · 9 days ago
Depending on the month, my kitchen AQI averages between 1-4, representing PM2.5 values of 0.1 - 0.8 ug/m^3. Bedrooms are likely better as they don't have the gas stove.

CO2 while occupied is generally under 750; I'd prefer to keep it under 700 but we also balance that with energy efficiency for that make-up air; I don't have an ERV, so we suffer a little there.

(We don't live by a freeway but - (a) Pittsburgh's air isn't great; and (b) the canadian wildfires were pretty bad here at times this summer, and that was what caused that 0.8 ug/m^3 pm2.5 spike).

We have, um, a lot of air filters left over from covid, though, so we're a little spoiled in terms of being able to manage AQI easily.

Comment · 9 days ago
The actual number needs to be interpreted carefully but the change is certainly real.
Comment · 15 days ago
Because Google doesn't have much of a financial interest in that kind of paper. Drug companies have a financial interest in studies that evaluate their drugs.

If you want a CS analogy, the google-co-authored papers about internet policy do get a lot more scrutiny. And rightfully so! That doesn't make them bad -- many of these are written by friends of mine whom I hold in great esteem -- it means we have to be aware of the potential for all of us to be influenced by the money.

Comment · 15 days ago
Dude. From the paper itself:

"Competing interests G.A.M. serves as a research consultant for Merck, GlaxoSmithKline/ViiV, and Gilead. M.J.C. serves as a scientific advisor for TruDiagnostic. V.D. and R.S. are employees of TruDiagnostic. All other authors declare no competing interests."

These are known risk factors. I've never said drug companies are bad. I literally take corporate funding for my own research. But you also don't get to stick your head in the sand and ignore the competing interests that all make the research more likely to show favorable results. Again for those in the back: These results probably _are_ correct! But do they generalize? Will they hold up on replication with a larger population? Do they matter, or is the proxy they're measuring not actually relevant for long term things in humans? Dunno. That's the thing about a _statistical likelihood of bias_ -- you have no idea exactly how to apply it to a single paper other than to say "ok, known possibility of bias, interpret accordingly."

Comment · 15 days ago
In addition to the funding bias wikipedia article someone else already cited:

https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.MR...

> Sponsorship of drug and device studies by the manufacturing company leads to more favorable efficacy results and conclusions than sponsorship by other sources. Our analyses suggest the existence of an industry bias that cannot be explained by standard 'Risk of bias' assessments.

And no! It's not unusual, nor does it mean the results are wrong. It just means there's a known bias towards results that favor the sponsor's interests that needs to be taken into account when evaluating the research. Again, that doesn't make it wrong. But it should make you cautious before thinking that a single study (in a very specific sub-population, at that) is necessarily going to generalize. It might. I hope it does! GLP-1's are awesome. But cautiously.

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