dakrisht

I don’t think so.

Italy is counting ALL deaths as Covid deaths.

Their Covid numbers are simply incorrect.

Apples to oranges. Can not compare Italy with Germany.

Germans are willingly being tested, there process, order, proactive testing. In Italy everyone is 1) quarantined for the past 2 weeks and 2) didn’t even give a crap about this prior to the quarantine.

Italy is triaging, out of hospital space, vastly over estimating numbers, and probably using models with some accuracy to report their numbers. Unless someone can PROVE this otherwise.

Their death rate is what it is due to a very elderly population, with 2 or more co-morbidities, in understaffed and overwhelmed hospitals full of chaos, and infection.

I see the data. There is a surge, obviously.

However, this assumes the current surge deaths are 100% SARS-Cov2 confirmed infections.

They aren’t. At least not 100%

Assumption can be made “atypical, bad flu season” but safer bet is on “newly discovered virus out of China that did x and y and z damage over there.”

While both theories are just that, theories. There is no empirical data which PROVES x-cases and y-surge is directly related to a confirmed SARS-Cov2 pathogen confirmed by RT-PCR and antibody test.

The Italian data is wrong period. Why or how is another debate.

This is another valid point and disturbing point.

Italians are most likely counting most if not all deaths as SARS-Cov2 deaths.

1) A large amount of the elderly are going to hospitals because of pre-existing conditions that might be flaring up or presenting as they normally do. They enter the clinic > get complications > get marked down as dying from SARS-Cov2. And/or they acquire hospital acquired pneumonia (HAP).

2) I’ve read the ISS report cover to cover and yes, nearly ALL deaths are due to 1) age greater than 70, 2) 75% showing 2 (two) or more per-existing conditions with a staggering 99% showing 1 (one) or more pre-existing conditions. Let’s not forget the above comment (HAP or other hospital acquired infections from SARS-Cov2, Influenza, whatever).

3) Seeing a death count YOY would be beneficial here indeed.

I don’t think ANYBODY will be able to answer my initial question here.

There is NO WAY in hell the Italians have tested over 200,000 patients for SARS-Cov2 in a matter of 2-3 weeks due to:

1) such capacity simply does not exist

2) Italians have been under quarantine and when they weren’t they were drinking coffee and not lining up for tests.

3) the time of test > result trajectory > reported data is impossible

4) such high throughout testing capacity simply does not exist

Where are these magic numbers coming from? :)

So 200,000+ people under mandatory lockdown went to a clinic (not a drive through test, a physical clinic), lined up and waited to get tested for Influenza which was assumed to be SARS-Cov2?

Or maybe Italy tested 200,000+ samples with RT-PCR technology with machines and labs and tests / swabs they don’t have?

Not trying at all to spin conspiracy theories here but these numbers simply do not add up.

As a corollary: there are a myriad of infections that can present as fever and cough: rhinoviruses, influenza, bronchial infections, gastroenteritis, auto immune flare ups, sinusitis and season allergies, the list goes on.

We are all speculating btw.

Ok sure. Still inaccurate to assume it’s SARS-Cov2.

This is not a game of assumptions.

Furthermore, Italy tested over 200,000 samples in a little less than 14 days? Don’t think so.

Numbers aren’t making sense. At all.

> One or two tests can confirm cases for a whole town.

What?

>They simply (and safely) assume that all flu-like illnesses coming from a certain area are covid.

So Influenza A, B are safely assumed to be SARS-Cov2.

Yeah... no.

Right. One issue we’re having globally is that we simply cannot get an accurate fatality rate.

We’re only seeing the sickest, most critical patients and the most overwhelmed hospital systems in cities.

I think MOST patients being tested in hotspots like Lombardy are those who are already at the hospital, and if you’re at the hospital you’re not in good shape.

Probably tons of positive cases at home with a fever, or mild symptoms or no symptoms.

And of course, tons of people who are not tested and probably never will be. Totally asymptomatic.

We can’t get an accurate fatality rate without these “infected but asymptomatic” cases.

Didn’t an Italian doctor do a small study showing 98% asymptomatic positive cases?

Yeah, I remember reading this as well.

MedCram did a good video showing how Zinc, for example, actually impairs viral replication but Zinc cannot enter the cell... without chloroquine :)

Seems chloroquine has the key to the cell, otherwise nothing goes in.

Source for this comment?

All pneumonia’s have decreased lung function post-infection and require therapy to retain full or close to full lung function.

Curious where you’re getting this info from

Good point and totally unnoticed.

The young who live with extended families are the perfect carriers as they’re asymptomatic and elderly are close by, infected surfaces, etc.

There’s truth to this and perhaps I jumped to an invalid American based assumption, stupid given that I’m European.

In Europe, the elderly are out and about, walking, sitting at parks, drinking coffee, the works. They’re actually still doing this as we speak in countries, from what friends and family tell me. Go figure.

However, even if they are in cafes, grocery stores, parks - the numbers are still very high.

This virus is either incredibly efficient and contagious (spread by totally asymptotic carrier pigeon patients > elderly) and/or it’s been there for a long time. Months.