d_silin

What are the rest of US launch vehicles doing?

* SLS (NASA) - operational (for Artemis missions only).

* Electron (Rocket Lab) - operational.

* Vulcan Centaur (ULA) - return to flight scheduled for November 2026.

* New Glenn (Blue Origin) - return to flight scheduled for December 2026.

* Antares 300 (Northrop Grumman) - under development, first flight NET 2027.

* Terran R (Relativity Space) - under development, first flight end of 2026(?).

* Neutron (Rocket Lab) - under development, first flight NET 2027.

* Firefly Alpha Block II (Firefly Aerospace) - under development, first flight Q1 2027

* Nova (Stoke Space) - under development, first flight NET 2027

LLM don't care. Humans do, but humans with LLMs are more prone to "drive-by" style of software development or substituting "expensive" ingredient (human time and attention) with "cheap" one (LLM tokens).

The longer I think about the impact of AI on software development, the more I see parallels between "pets" and "cattle" types of software projects. Or more aptly, fine china and disposable styrofoam plates. LLM-based development allows large-scale production of essentially disposable software. Which is fine for many business cases - software is a cost for them. Even with software as products, it makes sense to optimize production costs.

But open-source software is far more about the process than the product. And therefore longevity of resulting software can be expected to be far greater. Foundations of our software stack - libraries, source control operating systems, compilers, databases and numerous other pieces require people capable and willing to do a long-term care of the software - hence, the community that need to last decades. Linux and PostgreSQL is 35 years old, git is 21, OpenSSL 28.

I believe human-only software development will remain for the foreseeable future, despite the growth of LLM-based ones, just like mass-produced grocery bread didn't displace the artisanal bakeries.

Bigger than Ceres, btw. Who knows many of those drift in icy, cold darkness of Kuiper belt and beyond.

Considering rapid rise in demand for power generation due to AI boom across developed world, there will be no deep and fast cuts.

On the other side I suggest avoiding "doom and gloom" mentality - Earth's biosphere will be fine at up to +10C.

"You can't fix social issues through tech axis"

It is quite good.

I am very skeptical about benevolence of our future overlords, humans or AI, towards people they don't need anymore.

The point stands, though. Senior engineers can detach themselves from implementation details because more junior engineers still do the hard parts. In the AI case, agents are the "engineers". Eventually all competency will be within AI domain and none within human one.

Why people are so eager to surrender their birthright to the machines for the mess of pottage?

Identifying what social policies work best in the long-term, hopefully. Or why certain cultural patterns persist and how they contribute to the society well-being.