comp_throw7

> They also shouldn't be allowed to openly stir fear in the public by saying there is a 70% chance we're going to be extinct in two years without STRONG substantiation. Baseless clout-chasing social media posts like this are doing unheard of amounts of damage right now.

Yeah, man, we should just make it illegal to express our opinions in public. Also we should apply social pressure to prevent employees from saying things that would be inconvenient for their employer, that's highly pro-social.

Probabilities are subjective states of belief! They have always been subjective states of belief! There is no such thing as a "probability" out there in the real world (ignoring random quantum stuff, which isn't what anybody is talking about). If you took out a coin right now and flipped it, the true odds of it coming up heads are not 50%, but those are (roughly) the correct betting odds for an external observer to assign to it.

This is LLM-written.

> But if he is, he's missing that we do understand at a fundamental level how today's LLMs work.

No we don't? We understand practically nothing of how modern frontier systems actually function (in the sense that we would not be able to recreate even the tiniest fraction of their capabilities by conventional means). Knowing how they're trained has nothing to do with understanding their internal processes.

The same is true of humans, and so the argument fails to demonstrate anything interesting.

> Claude won't render fanfic of Porky Pig sodomizing Elmer Fudd either.

Bet?

> But if it was there is currently no way for anyone to tell the difference.

This is false. There are many human-legible signs, and there do exist fairly reliable AI detection services (like Pangram).

I think your instinct is very likely correct - I also immediately tripped on the language.

I'm pretty sure at this point more than half of Anthropic's new production code is LLM-written. That seems incompatible with "these agents are not up to the task of writing production level code at any meaningful scale".

It's pretty surprising that we don't have a good idea of how one of the most common (classes of) disease in the world spreads. This reviews the literature and does a bit of synthesis. (The conclusion is "probably mostly large particle aerosols, for adult-to-adult transmission, but more research needed to be confident".)

We're seeing issues with RDS proxy. Wouldn't be surprised if a DNS issue was the cause, but who knows, will wait for the postmortem.

I have no idea what you think you're responding to. I use LLMs frequently in both professional and personal contexts and find them extremely useful. I am making a different, more specific claim than the thing you think I am saying. I recommend reading my comment more carefully.

Posting (unmarked) LLM-generated content on public discussion forums is polluting the commons. If I want an LLM's opinion on a topic, I can go get one (or five) for free, instantly. The reason I read the writing of other people is the chance that there's something interesting there, some non-obvious perspective or personal experience that I can't just press a button to access. Acting as a pipeline between LLMs and the public sphere destroys that signal.