campnic
Joined 17 years ago
Joined 17 years ago
I mean, "actively disseminated" seems a bit generous. They call 3 institutions to let them know meanwhile individual (notice i'm intentionally not saying "retail" because thats become some sort of in-crowd, brow beating, bullshit term for shaming regular, non-hedge fund investors) are left to read smoke signals. Its not that the institutional investors "had analysts at their disposal" its that the systems is built to make sure institutional investors and hedge funds get information others don't.
You can say what you want, but the quote from the hedge fund manager seems much more clear then your opinion, and he's a domain expert who took part in the situation.
>"There's "no way" a retail investor could have known about the lowered projections, unless he or she "had a friend at a multi-billion dollar institution," he added."
> Scott Sweet's multi-billion dollar hedge fund client flipped the stock at $42. His subsequent short made his firm its "largest profit of the year," Sweet said. There's "no way" a retail investor could have known about the lowered projections, unless he or she "had a friend at a multi-billion dollar institution," he added.
Please explain to me, when information is withheld from the purchasers and only specific clients notified as to circumstantial and meaningful changes to the state of the offering, how anyone could ever "know what you're doing?' In fact, Morgan Stanley was actively misleading investors by continuing to adjust the specifications of the offering to make it look better.
Analogy: If an automaker produced a new car which was secretly designed to become worthless (engine would fuse together) after 3 months and only told one rich people not to buy it, would that be fine? What if there come back was 'you could always open the hood and see our computer components which execute after 3 months, its not our fault you don't know what you're doing'
I'm talking opening their code in notepad, 'versioning' files by sending around zip files with numbers manually added to the end of the file name, etc.
This doesn't even begin to scratch the surface of the 'reproducible results' problem. Often times, the software I've seen is 'rough' to be kind. Most times its not even possible to get the software running (missing some really specific library or some changes to a dependency which haven't been distributed) or its built for a super specific environment and makes huge assumptions on what can 'be assumed about the system.' This same software produces results which end up being published in journals.
If any of these places had money to spend, I think there could be a valuable business in teaching science types how to better manage their software. Its really unfortunate that outside of a few core libraries (numpy, etc.) the default method is for each researcher to rebuild the components they need.
I'm surprised about only 11% of results being reproducible. It seems lower then I'd expect. I agree we don't want to optimize for reproducibility, but obviously there is some problem here that needs to be addressed.