camnora

Qwen is just crushing it overall. I regularly use 3.7-flash for everyday coding needs and it gets the job done.

Not to mention selling it

And I have a fear of rejection

They say you shouldn't try to time the market, which is probably good advice. However, my approach is/was:

- back in April, moved 401k fund from S&P allocation to cash equivalent (2% yield). Note: this wasn't a cash out, just reallocation.

- Bought long-dated treasuries (10 yr and 30 yr). Allocated through July and August. This one is not doing well, but allocation was sized appropriately (< 2% of portfolio).

- pooling any excess capital in a savings account until volatility calms down.

- have a couple rentals and plan to continue holding. It will be interesting to see some buying opportunities in the upcoming year or two.

An increase of MBS offered on the market will cause mortgage rates to rise because there's too many loans for sale and not enough buyers. Buyers will demand higher and higher rates to make it worth their while.

Oh neat, TIL. Thanks

I think the idea is that the Fed is trying to tamper demand by softening the economy. Lower demand will inevitably help prices. It doesn't help much though if we get a "rough landing" and people can't afford food/housing because they're out of a job.

> If the Fed sells mortgage securities that pay low rates at a time when prevailing rates are much higher, it will incur big financial losses that reduce the funds the central bank returns to the Treasury.

Why does this reduce the amount of funds to the treasury? The losses are on the Feds balance sheet. My understanding is that the Treasury is not involved here, but the article hints at them being affected. Is it implying that treasury yields will rocket higher???

> In that scenario, expect officials to face tough questions from Capitol Hill to explain why they've lost billions of dollars on behalf of the American people.

If the Fed takes a loss, doesn't this mean that base money supply increases? Sure it will be drawing liquidity out of the system, but in the long run, it will leave more money in the system compared to where they started with QE.

Textbooks won't tell you about Brent Johnson's Dollar Milkshake theory. They also won't have insight on todays inflation and whether it's more similar to the 1970s or 1940s. Textbooks are great for finance fundamentals, but shouldn't be the sole source of macro.

Here's a list of podcasts that touch on macro: - Eurodollar University - The Grant Williams Podcast - Grant's Current Yield - Hidden Forces - Inside Baseball with Old Chestnut - Keeping it Simple with Simplify Asset Management - Library of Mistakes - The Macro Compass - Macro Musings - The Macro Trading Floor - Macro Voices - The Market Huddle - Money Sense - On The Margin - Real Conversations - Real Vision Daily Briefing - The Rebel Capitalist Show - Super Investors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom - Wealthion

The best thing you can do is be open to hearing all opinion/theories. Some people will contradict others, but over time you figure out who is right and who is not.

In addition, I also watch a few indices in my stock app for a high level overview. These are the treasury yields, corporate credit spreads, dollar index, s&p 500, nasdaq, etc. I used to follow much more, but it's not needed for higher level macro.

I tend to keep my PRs small enough to where several can be submitted within a day. This being said, I tend to keep my changes un-staged.

When I'm ready to commit:

1. `git diff` to get an overall picture of what changes were made. Which parts of this diff can be packaged into an isolated commit?

2. `git add -p` This is where I selectively stage bits.

3. `git diff --cached` to verify that the staged items are all in place

4. `git commit` with a detailed message.

5. Repeat steps 1-4 until all changes have been committed.

6. `git fetch origin main && git rebase origin/main`

7. Finally, `git push`

When PR feedback is left by peers, some teammates prefer you to not rewrite commits and force push. This makes re-review easier for them (especially if you use the Github features around PR review).

I opt for rewriting commits if it's okay with team members. This way you don't have "fix typo" commits getting merged into the main branch.

Edit: formatting