brockwhittaker

You're conflating micro and macro price movements. Sure, you can't predict black swan events with technical analysis, but it wouldn't be out of the question to predict short term fluctuations based on a mixture of market psychology and herd thinking.

I don't employ any technical analysis in trading, nor am I a strong advocate, but technical analysis is more about reactionary psychology than about predicting the future. In the most micro sense, the market is dictated by single individuals buying and selling stock, and in the broadest sense, it's a statistical result of millions, or billions of unknowns. Those are two totally different games.

Thanks for the note! I'll change the wording in my article WRT bills/notes. :)

With regards to safety, I noted that I think there are two types of safety to note here:

1. Default risk. 2. Asset price volatility.

Ultimately if someone is willing and able to hold to expiry, they aren't subject to #2, but this clearly wasn't the case with SVB and may also be the case with other institutions. I think it lacks nuance to not consider the middle states between the purchase of a bond and the full return of the bond upon expiry.

Looks like tons of sites are down due to a Fastly outage.

I haven’t heard much from Bordeaux on crémants, but i can vouch for burgundy and loire for crémants that perform as well as many champagnes, for under $25.

This is also true historically to some effect. The bordeaux classification of 1855 (which remains in effect) was in large part done on price.

yep! i just spun down that service and didn’t bother to use it again, i wanted something simpler.

sorry I just made this site this morning to post this article. it's just a simple node-http server! I don't write much :)

This is totally my personal bias, but I'm unsure that speculation has a positive value in the housing market, and I think governments should largely try to ensure that as many people as possible can afford homes, rather than ensuring that people can profit off the sales of their homes.

In the United States, people have long seen real estate as a path to wealth (unlike Japan, for example), so it's difficult to reason that people's primary homes shouldn't be their escape hatch into retirement (e.g. the dream of someone buying a house in 1980s Palo Alto and selling it in 2022).

+1, lest we forget the original premise behind VC returns was that seed checks had huge returns because most people weren't willing to take on the risk, timeline or probability distribution of funding startups. Now everyone is willing to, so that arb is gone.

Aside from giving your money away to specific under-resourced groups, is the second best thing to just not spend your money?

I think that taking money out of the system entirely means less demand competition for everyone else, which means more resources for others.

also the amount of fun is close to zero sum in life. that’s why kids can play with cardboard boxes and adults can’t figure out how to have any fun. reducing alcohol for a while will reduce fun, but then your threshold/sensitivity for what is enjoyable will increase, and the endorphins will return.