Recent submissions

Comment · 4 days ago
Sorry that I didn't see this response until now, but thanks for engaging with me!

"I put a high value on intent when trying to understand a person, but when having to evaluate an action taken intent barely matters to me."

This doesn't specify what kind of (e)valuation.

"As soon as intent comes into play ... there might as well not be punishment for actions."

This suggests the (e)valuation is in regards to punishment. The next question is, what's the point of the punishment? Deterrence, rehabilitation, and/or retribution? And can it apply to an "action" and not a person?

Retribution is almost like chasing a sunken cost, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_cost . I feel encouraging forgiveness is probably one of the best values certain religions can provide. Nonetheless, can this be applied to an action and not a person? Hmm... How does one get a proportionate/similar response or rather "re-action" to, say, killing? Can you kill killing? Not really, it is not alive, and if you were to make it not exist, then it wouldn't be the same thing any more.

Okay, what about rehabilitation? Can you "reform" an action? Not really, once you change it, it is no longer the same action.

Okay, what about deterrence? Can you instill fear into an action? No, not really.

If I seem flippantly pedantic, I don't mean to be. I am trying to illustrate that you can't simply "evaluate an action" outside of the person [EDIT, a few seconds later: at least when it comes to "punishment"].

Comment · 4 days ago
This is coincidental, as I've been tempted for a long time to an Ask HN of why they don't have a CSS fallback for minimal navigation when Javascript is blocked.

I myself was "inspired" by css-tricks back in 2019 to make a CSS-only page that can still show and hide elements. I don't want to self-promote, as that is against the rules, but here's the relevant CSS that I'm pretty sure this was "inspired" from css-tricks--but I can't remember, and I don't have a link to the appropriate page.

.css-toggle-switch { display: none; } .css-toggle-switch + label:before { content: "Hide "; } .css-toggle-switch:checked + label:before { content: "Show "; } .css-toggle-switch:checked ~ .css-toggle-content { display: none; }

.css-toggle-switch + label { cursor: pointer; -webkit-touch-callout: none; -webkit-user-select: none; -moz-user-select: none; -ms-user-select: none; user-select: none; }

.btn { padding: 5px 10px; background: white; border: 1px solid grey; border-radius: 3px; width: 130px; display: inline-block; text-align: center; }

.btn:hover { background: #e6e6e6; -webkit-box-shadow: inset 0 -1px 0 #dddddd; -moz-box-shadow: inset 0 -1px 0 #dddddd; box-shadow: inset 0 -1px 0 #dddddd; }

I suspect something like this can be used to collapse and expand comments on news.ycombinator.com. And it is /the only thing/ I find missing and needed from news.ycombinator.com with Javascript turned off. If Geoff or anyone else wants to post some CSS here that can do the job, maybe we can get HN to incorporate it. If not, maybe the rest of us can at least use it with a browser extension that can add custom CSS.

Comment · 9 days ago
SMBC comic from 5 days ago: https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/chip

Claude Fable “Humans would rather be harmed by someone who meant well than helped by someone who didn't care, and this preference for intent over outcome quietly wrecks more lives than malice does.” Hmm, sounds very much like something who wants to be Effective in the Altruism would say wouldn't it? Saying "intent over outcome ... wrecks more lives" is a hop and a skip away from utilitarianism. "Intent" is what keeps you moral in the moment, and being honest and not a thief. "Outcome" cannot be predicted though EA would love to think it can be. Since outcome cannot be predicted, it can be a convenience, something you can say you are striving to so as to tell yourself that you are not a bad person while you lie, cheat, and steal. Basically cognitive dissonance.

Like how our enlightened Founding Fathers can be slave owners. "All men are created equal..." Wait, I have slaves... Oh, I know, they're just not actual humans, now I'm still a good person. Whew. I'm going to stop thinking at exactly this moment. Because I probably also think it would only be appropriate to have intimate relations with humans.

I really can't think of EA as being much different. Interesting that the /Anthropic/ model came up with this.

Garbage in, garbage out.

Comment · 9 days ago
9 / 9

Well, the day comes, the trolley is unleashed on the world. And sure enough, there are people all over the tracks. Of course, there was no time (allowed by Samsamelo) to test properly. So of course, they realize only once it has started that sometimes the trolley gets going so fast there is no time to get out of the way. And sure enough the trolley is on its way towards five people ready to pull it, but there is a switch, and you, you dear reader, not Samsamelo, can pull it and instead have it gone toward one person instead on another track.

Now, this is an almost trolley problem. There are still a few minutes to try a few things. You can yell at the people down the tracks to try to get out of the way now, but they may not hear you. You can try putting some things in the way of the trolley. Lastly you can make that last ditch effort to derail the trolley at exactly the moment it gets to the switch. And, quite possibly, no one will get hurt.

But, of course, we never needed to have this almost trolley problem at all.

Had Samsamelo been ethical and not lied and at least one-third stole, people who are actually caring and good, and likely do not lie nor steal, and coincidentally are not nearly as ridiculously wealthy but at least are now on somewhat more of a level playing field as the ridiculously wealthy would have been honest and transparent, would not have allowed what soon may happen. Namely, what is arguably the most unethical thing of all: the taking of innocent life.

Again, the right questions to ask are… Why is there a trolley barreling down the tracks? Why are there people on the tracks? Why are we in this situation? Why did someone make the decisions that have us in this place?

The answer:

People who believe in real trolley problems, that are never proven, prove to create the real “almost trolley problems” that should never have been.

Comment · 9 days ago
8 / 9

Of course, some might say that accredited investor rules are there to protect this type of investor in the US. But do they really when these rules prevent non-accredited investors from investing in the box business, but allow accredited investors to invest in the box business, and no rules prevent both accredited and non-accredited (as the rules should apply to both) from using a US-based version of this box that too would later fail spectacularly? It's quite likely Samsamelo would not have been able to grow so big as to collapse so spectacularly without accredited investor money. And very likely this US-based version wouldn't have been attractive as a box to non-accredited investors had there been other options for non-accredited investors. And thus, the lack of other options for non-accredited investors actually makes it more attractive as a box business to accredited investors. Are these double standards really to protect anyone or just the wealth/income divide status quo?

Now let's turn to “almost trolley problems.”

Samsamelo, through hook and at least a third of a crook, has made the money. (For himself, and, I guess, some trolley development.) He promised investors one year. He needed all the money in the world to make it safe in ten years. But if he waits even that long with the risks and lies he's made, he could lose it all (or at least that's what he tells himself).

Clearly (to him) five years will have to do.

Now one of the promises he made was no more needing a person to pull the trolley, the Arty Ingineer. And, he says, it's really almost there, Arty Ingineer just needs someone to be in front and pull the trolley a bit. Just a bit. But soon! Soon not all.

Five years later and Samsamelo wants to unveil his extensive trolley system. The engineers, of course, tell Samsamelo this is extremely unsafe. To even partly manage what he claimed to be able to do safely, he'd have to do it extremely dangerously. He'd have to have people located throughout the track system, pulling it along, and in some places, they might need to be directly on the track and in harm’s way.

Not that the general public knew this, as Samsamelo cleverly made sure his engineers signed agreements that would make them substantially lose the money they were promised for their hard work, or worse yet would vindictively be persecuted to an almost petty degree if they revealed the truth. Either by hounding with private investigators and smearing publicly or by litigating into submission by being able to outspend on all legal costs. That doesn't seem very ethical either, but, trolley utopia, et cetera., something, something, somehow, it’s more ethically good than bad.

Comment · 9 days ago
7 / 9

Though, of course, this is blatant stealing.

So, now we're talking 100% blatant lying and 33.3% (at least) blatant stealing. All extremely unethical. But in service of a greater good right? That is, if indeed, this is the only way, or even the best way, to trolley utopia. If indeed there is the runaway horse carriage problem that this will fix. And Samsamelo knows the right way to steer those horses. Of course, a utopia is forever good, right? So, one would never know for sure, funny how that is.

Well, this 33% of Samsamelo does get a bit of a comeuppance. As almost never happens, and why these black boxes do so well, someone else got a glimpse in the box and how little was actually still in there. Instead of actually money, it was pieces of paper issued by himself for his own potential trolley parts and priced entirely and fictitiously by him. His way of “making” more money is later legally proven as fraud, which is basically lying and theft at the same time.

Notably, some investors at the time were seemingly content to invest in only the box/fraud making a “profit” off the investors who wanted the pieces of paper. In a sense, this type of investor invested only in Samsamelo being able to convince others to invest. For example, Theter Piel is shown in court documents to invest in the box, but there is no evidence he ever wanted any of the pieces of paper supposedly pegged to the money to the box. As one wouldn't, if one were trusting in a person to make you money, but completely distrusting of the product ostensibly involved.

But of course, those investors needed the other type of investor, the ones who took the pieces of paper. To be fair, they aren't less intelligent than Theter, these investors just didn’t have the legal options to invest in just the box like Theter, an accredited US venture capitalist, does. To these investors, this is one of the few ways to invest available to them.

Comment · 9 days ago
6 / 9

Of course, what of the investors listening to this story? Such as Samsamelo's number one investor Theter Piel? Do these investors tell themselves the same “story” that this is necessary? Do they just see Samsamelo can get lots of other money? Do they care about the truth or just number go up and try not to be the last one if it goes down? Are they, too, masters of convincing others and possibly themselves? Do they care when they see definitive proof that Samsamelo constantly lies and possibly steals? Do they think they are “just” investors, not themselves lying or stealing (presumably)?

Regarding “possibly” stealing, that doesn't mean either 100% he steals or 100% he does not. Samsamelo is just one person, but it can actually be said with at least 33.3% confidence, that he finds another way to “make” more money. He puts together a box, then paints it black, and tells his investors they can put money in it. And after that he gives them pieces of paper that track the price of various trolley parts, which will obviously become valuable in the trolley utopia that is coming.

And they seemingly have control over their investments, with amazing returns, and by switching around these pieces of paper for other pieces of paper they seemingly make even more amazing returns. But they can't have any of their original money or their returns from the box while holding these pieces of paper. And giving back their pieces would mean they wouldn't be able to switch around pieces of paper anymore. Such as pieces of paper for trolley parts Samsamelo says he'll be making himself, and, though not directly noticeable, controlling the price of himself. That box painted black also has a nice little flap in the back for Samsamelo to go in and, you know, look at the money at a polite distance.

But of course, Samsamelo thinks to himself (very possibly before even making the box), why, I could “use” this money to make an even bigger box and get more investors to put money in it. Namely, by “temporarily” taking the money out. Of course, he contractually states to those investors who signed up with his trolley paper parts company that he would never do this. But after removing the money, Samsamelo uses that money as he sees fit. Samsamelo “spends” some of that money on risky investments of exactly the kind of trolley technologies that Samsamelo is selling. He also “spends” directly on allies and on lavish accommodations for himself. Spending a lot will make the box seem more successful, he might just be thinking. That which is publicly aware spending, like being able to buy a stadium's naming rights, will be assumed to have come entirely from the collection of modest fees. And if this were true, it would thus reflect huge volume. Volume that must come from a superior product/service. And in the publicly unaware spending on friends, family, and bribes to political officials, that will just get him more allies that will also further the box’s success.

Comment · 9 days ago
5 / 9

He says: “Well, assume all the resources in the world.”

The engineers say: “Well, clearly not all the resources. Not the resource of ‘time.’”

He says: “Okay, all the money. We’ll buy more engineers.”

They say: “It doesn't work like that; at some point you need to test it in the real world. And to do so safely requires time. But let's pretend all the money in the world, all the engineers and testers we can find, as there is still a lot of real-world testing that you just can't trim away, okay, maybe 10 years. Of course that's a hypothetical that can't really…”

But by then Samsamelo has walked away.

Samsamelo then goes straight to the media and, of course, potential investors: “My trolley will be ready in one year!”

Blatant lie, you say. But Samsamelo thinks, this way I can get the investors to provide the money that then can make the trolley happen within 10 years, not 20.

Samsamelo says to the investors: “How will I do it? Arty Ingineer! No more relying on people to pull trolleys. In fact, everyone can just sit back, drink mint julips, and let my wondrous Arty Ingineer do it all.”

He continues: “Think about how good this will be to society! Lives will be saved that no longer need to wait for slow horses. The planet will be saved from all the bad stuff those horses’ poop make! Then in a few years we won't need tracks. Soon flying trolleys! Soon trolleys to outer space! Where we can create trolley systems on other planets! Maybe we will transcend into half-trolley half-human UberTrolleys that can trolley on for infinity!”

Comment · 9 days ago
4 / 9

People like Samsamelo know that it takes three parts: really good, slightly bad, and no other way. It takes more and more convoluted logic as the distance between the vehicle (of Samsamelo's financial success) and the junction increases, and the distance between the junction and the people increases, to dismiss what is clearly plenty of ways–to just about everyone except those who directly and immediately financially benefit–into an inevitability. But believing in real world carriage (or, later, trolley) problems is the first step. Once someone believes they can exist, then it's just a matter of convincing them (and possibly themselves) that they are in one, and that the convincer is who best knows how to handle it, and–again –convincing is what people like Samsamelo do best.

So, Samsamelo learns about ForgottenToTime's new trolley invention. He uses his money, which by now has grown thanks to his ability to lie (and possibly steal) and was started thanks to his born-with cushion to take risks and fail as many times as he wants, to buy ForgottenToTime's company. And, to paraphrase Nedroid / Anthony Clark, soon Samsamelo was saying proudly “I made this trolley” (under breath:) “company's incremental increase in apparent investor value.”

And how did he do it? Well, he asks the engineers: “How long until the trolley is ready?”

The engineers say: “Well, that depends. If you mean, when can we put a machine on a track and have it move forward, we can do that today. It basically falls apart within two minutes and it requires someone to stand in front of it and pull, which of course is extremely dangerous. If you are asking when it can be made to last more than two minutes outside of a lab, and maybe not pulled by a person but in a strictly controlled test environment… Maybe 20 years.”

He says: “Impossible! I need it in two months.”

The engineers say: “That's impossible.”

Comment · 9 days ago
3 / 9

Now, is this to be a good man to himself? Or to others? Or simply seem like that to others? Or a combination of the three? I'm not sure he knows. I do know that it's pretty much impossible for anyone else to know what is in another person's head. I mean it's not like anyone would be stupid enough to put an electronic device in their brain that could reveal their thoughts, right? But more importantly, it is unknowable because people like him are masters of lies. Masters of convincing others of things. Thus, very likely masters of convincing even themselves of convenient things. And since it generally feels good to consider oneself a good person: It's probably a safe bet to say he has done so and convinced himself of convenient things. And very likely by the very method that he will use to convince others. And if that's the case, it would be very unlikely he could answer for whom exactly he is trying to be a good man for. After all, the convoluted/fallible logic requires not thinking all the way through in order for it to be “true,” so why assume he'd think all the way through for himself?

And that convoluted/fallible logic? That trolley problems exist. Though I suppose they're just runaway horse carriage problems at this point for Samsamelo. And what's more, that no matter how far that carriage is from that fork in the road or that fork is to where the people are in harm’s way; even if that carriage is so far away you can't see it; even if that fork is actually further away to people than you'd ever imagine; even if there are thousands of miles of unseen territory between; even if it is completely plausible that there are any number of ways that carriage might divert, slow down, stop, or even speed up at any point; it is still somehow just as binary in outcome, he says. And, what's even more? That this person who has a huge financial incentive in others thinking he knows best does in fact know best, he says. And he says he should be trusted to say: Yes, there is no other way. Yes, I know the best way. Even though he will lie and possibly steal constantly. Even though society normally only accepts that type of behavior when someone's family is starving, and that one lie/theft might feed them that one time and there truly is no other way.

Comment · 9 days ago
2 / 9

So, it turns out the trolley was invented by a Mr. ForgottenToTime. A brilliant inventor who was really good at making locomotive machines, but not so much at convincing people to invest in his ideas. Because he told people honestly that his ideas may not see practical application right away, but with enough funding and coordination, possibly someday. But it might simply just take a lot of time and testing before it can be done safely. Not that many people would listen to him anyway, as he wasn't born rich.

Nonetheless, he preserved and started a modest company making decent trolley designs and rudimentary prototypes. Was coming along nicely, and probably would have gotten to the point of safe, general public use on its own with the help of other like-minded individuals in about twenty years. Not really a long time if you think about it.

Along came Samsamelo Altbankmenusk. Basically, the opposite of him. Really good at convincing people to invest in ideas, not so much at inventing locomotive machines. But so good at convincing, he could even convince you he was a brilliant inventor himself. Obviously, the only way he could do that is with blatant lies.

Now Samsamelo knew, at least conventionally, that lying is “wrong.” At least according to “society” which inconveniently has all the money that he wants. On top of the large amount of money he was born with, of course.

He also knows that society will allow wanting money for a societally-deemed-good purpose, such as feeding oneself and one's family. In extreme situations, like one is destitute and has no other option, it can even forgive/excuse lying or stealing to feed one's family. In other words, if it's for really good, but you need to do slightly bad, and you have no other options–society accepts.

But Samsamelo has plenty of money to feed himself and family. He nonetheless wants more. And he has seen among the many rich people around him that lying and stealing are very effective ways to do it. If he could just think of some way of justifying it, he could lie and steal, get lots of money, and be a “good” man.

Comment · 14 days ago
I don't really like this comment I made. I was tired and I tried to make an analogy with phlogiston for what seems like a pushed portrayal of AI as being, well, some kind of "super intelligence." But the kind of person that might try to "make fetch happen" with "super intelligence" is very different from, say, J. J. Becher theorizing about the mechanism with the hope of understanding it https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._J._Becher . Phlogiston wasn't a marketing term bordering on propaganda, but rather a theory before good measurement was available. It's more like someone today trying to guess what may have existed before the big bang, there is no known measurement for that, but for something that was staring people in the face nearly daily: fire.

I mean, it kind of works, in that AI is doing neat things and terrible things and it's staring people in the face all the time--except in this case because the tech monopolies force it on us. So people will want to make explanations. But there was no Big Fire that wanted us to buy more fire-making products and thus would be incentivized to come up with, say, "fire works by using your magical spirit and you get closer to heaven with each fire you set with our fire products, buy our fire products, or rather, let us keep pushing all competition for warming one's self via political corruption allowing our monopolies to exist."

Nonetheless, I do think there's something to be gained with the idea of a billion toddlers looking at mammograms, and the lack of measurement that underlay phlogiston.

First of all, I don't know if I ethically should be using the term "toddler." I heard Coxon use it. Frankly, I don't trust him. I won't trust him until he starts saying /prominently/ that people at tech companies should be liable for breaking laws that already exist and accountability is the bigger problem. Corporations already could do dangerous stuff with biology, weapons, bioweapons or the like, it's not complicated. You do dangerous stuff, you should be held accountable. Why are we farting around wondering if some bio-engineered virus that was released by some corporation could replicate on its own, when we should be say "yo, some organization released a virus on people, why are the people at the top of this organization not getting arrested or something?" I'll admit it might be an "or something" and not "arrested," but it sure looks like nothing is happening--because that's what usually happens when the sufficiently rich do something really bad. No accountability. If Coxon is going to use talking points (and I suspect he is) it should be the very first talking point Coxon or anyone else uses--otherwise I don't trust them.

But let's use "toddlers." A billion toddlers started to get right on mammograms being cancerous or not, but being toddlers they can't really articulate why.

One toddler notices he gets his marshmallow for being right when he notices the pictures are not "shiny." What does that mean? He can't explain it, but it turns out he noticed that some images were made at a lower resolution or otherwise fuzzy because it was older/cheaper tech. And who uses that? People who are poor in poor areas. And turns out, poorer people from poorer areas don't bother to come to the doctor until it's an advanced problem, because they can't afford to come in otherwise (because, say, it's America and American healthcare is broken). And sure enough, those people are more likely to have cancer.

One notices there's more white stuff in some places and dark stuff in another place, not always the same place, but kind of similarly. They say "it's um got that white stuff dark stuff thing." It turns out that's just a reflection of something that happens when the patient is richer or poorer, and again richer people have more chance of false positive because they have the luxury of getting checked more often.

One notices they are more "squishy". That's because radiologist in socioeconomically better areas have a different technique... And so forth.

And, then to make it worse, most toddlers are so inarticulate they can't even say "shiny" or "squishy," so you can't get any information out of them.

That inability to articulate is kind of like the inability to measure, the inability to see the importance of mass in the air, per this: "Phlogiston remained the dominant theory until the 1770s when Antoine-Laurent de Lavoisier showed that combustion requires a gas that has mass (specifically, oxygen) and could be measured by means of weighing closed vessels."

So, it kind of works as an analogy that way, but--again--it's a bit messy.

This comment isn't much better, but I love to dig deeper into my holes.

Comment · 16 days ago
Not sure about that title, it did bait me into a click. "Mathematicians are now facing something similar to generational trauma of structural racism born of exploitation, slavery, and colonialism?" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Know_Why_the_Caged_Bird_Sing...

But regardless, the detection of breast cancer via AI made me think of phlogiston https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phlogiston_theory . "Phlogiston theory states that phlogisticated substances contain phlogiston and that they dephlogisticate when burned, releasing stored phlogiston, which is absorbed by the air. Growing plants then absorb this phlogiston, which is why air does not spontaneously combust and also why plant matter burns. This method of accounting for combustion was inverse to the oxygen theory by Antoine Lavoisier."

It could be phlogiston. AI is super smart theory states that AI is super smart and that is a single thing can do tasks very efficiently. But it's so smart, we can't understand it, so we humans can't help it, it'll take AI to make it even smarter. That's what's holding it back. But then it'll solve everything.

Or it could be oxygen. AI is super-fast-and-parallel theory states that AI is not a magical monolith but a bunch of pedestrian programs that run fast and in parallel, thanks to hardware (GPUs) that's good at that stuff. But since it's all going so fast and at the same time, something a single human cannot do, humans can't really see how it works. But if we could, we'd probably just see its just doing stuff programs did before. So what's holding it back is that you have to keep throwing hardware at it, and eventually you run into the limits of how fast you can build that hardware or power it.

It all might be stuff humans were better at, when approached one-on-one, but against a swarm it loses. You get a billion doctors together to look at a single mammogram, then tell them if it cancerous, then do that again a billion times with each doctor. Then ask those billion doctors on the billion-and-one mammogram to give a diagnosis. Heck, do that with a billion toddlers. I think either might be able to beat the AI. I don't have a billion doctors or a billion toddlers--frankly I don't know which would be more difficult to handle.

To know if it's oxygen or phlogiston takes probably a demonstration like this "Phlogiston remained the dominant theory until the 1770s when Antoine-Laurent de Lavoisier showed that combustion requires a gas that has mass (specifically, oxygen) and could be measured by means of weighing closed vessels." Maybe the data center financing trouble will be the demonstration that the mass in the gas is just VC-money hardware.

I know why you got a billion cages with a billion birds and a billion bird listeners to compare a billion songs to the few songs we like to hear, and then packaged all that into a single bird-looking thing to make singing-like sounds: So Altman can get that VC money.

Comment · 24 days ago
Disclosure: I did not read the whole thing. I, too, felt the premise was faulty and not worth reading beyond.

First paragraph: "Once adulthood is reached, life follows an austere pattern, with a 5am start, cold baths, daily visits to the gym, little or no alcohol, a Huel-rich diet, and Stakhanovite working hours. This last point generates particular excitement, and descriptions of powerful people dwell with eager fascination on how many hours they devote to their labors."

Why are we taking the CEOs words at face value? They are notoriously known for doing and saying whatever will most help them succeed. Do they say they do these things? Sure. Do we know if they do? If they look like they workout, they probably do, but otherwise how do we know what they do with their day? Anyone who probably actually does know probably has to sign some crazy NDA. Will lying about their routine help them succeed? Quite possibly. CEOs rarely work their way up in the same company over decades, starting on the factory floor. They are MBAs that hop from one company to the next. So they are incentivized to promote some kind of mystique about themselves to make them seem more deserving over the next hopper. Knowing the lack of ethics associated with CEOs, it is not a stretch to assume there is a lot of fluffery in their self-proclaimed routine.

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