alexmolas

Yes, good point. I meant that the Jev can't be calibrated for everyone out of the box. I find it important because this is one of their main claims. They literally say

> Outcomes assigned a probability of 0.2 should occur about 20% of the time.

and this is not true

"Not especially good at classifying" does sound like a serious drawback for a classifier

If you want calibrated probabilities you'll be forced to fine-tune it

I don't know if it's reasonable. What it isn't is calibrated.

But "problems about actual probabilities whose answers can't be known at all" are exactly the problems where calibration is important. Since calibration is one of the big claims about Jev I'd expect it to perform well in these problems.