alchemyromcom
Joined 6 years ago
Joined 6 years ago
I think it might be an allusion to alchemy. Basically, the alchemists believed that ash (what was left after burning something) was the soul of all things...And-- this is where my complete lack of understanding about science shows-- I'm pretty sure Ash has lots of carbon? It's, you know, poetic. Many have claimed that poems are the "language of paradox" so it's okay for it to be a little non-literal. My interpretation of it, though, is that the soul is something impure that you must burn away, or maybe that the soul is polluted by our own words and behavior. It's definitely not meant to be scientifically accurate.
Is it really that simple? I'll fully admit that most of my understanding of the stock market is based on intuition and reading books with flashy titles. In other words, I'm far above the moving charalatan average in most aspects of my life, and you also sound like you might actually know what you're talking about based on how definitive your answer is. If you also, for example, back-test a moving average strategy it usually ends up terrible I've noticed--either making almost no money or losing money.
Yet, I really like watching the stock market. It's my favorite hobby in fact. It certainly feels like a death cross is going to be a bad time when it happens, but maybe the truth is more complicated then the cryptic silly lines I gain so much joy from.
You might already know this, but the stock market death-crossed around January and then it went down for a long time after that. But it also doesn't always go down so dramatically every time there is a death cross. I'm not keeping accurate tallies on the whole thing, but it seems like it's often bad when those two lines cross and often good when they cross in the opposite direction--the so-called "golden cross". I did actually put a little money on a stock because it golden-crossed recently and it went way up today, which was pretty exciting news. And I'm also avoiding a lot of stocks because they are about to death-crossed or just have recently on the weekly charts, but you know, I can also understand how the language I'm using might be mistaken for a seance organized by a bunch of teenagers dressed like vampires.
Mostly I listen to smart people like Warran Buffet and buy value stocks with good p/e, price-to-book, lots of equity, less debt, good earnings etc. It would be silly not to listen to the richest man in the world about what kind stocks to buy. Yet, it still feels like there's something else there, even if my little hobby is about as realistic as playing a round of magic the gathering. It's, you know, my little hour of make believe, that I put some money into in order to escape my otherwise mundane and factual existence.
I think the author is a little overly skeptical here. A moving average is by no means voodoo black magic, it's actually very simple. You take the price over the last x periods, for example 50 days, and find an average. Then you do the same with a different amount of periods, say 200 days, and then you compare that to the price. I think it's reasonable and useful to make inferences based on these three pieces of data. Is the price under the two averages? If yes, then it's likely a little low right now and might go up. Is the price way over the average price? If yes, it could go down. That, to me, is a reasonable analysis of data.
Taking it a little further, if the shorter period average is going down way faster than the longer period average, does that indicate something? Maybe that the price has been going down faster recently compared to the average of the longer period of time. Is that not a useful observation to make? If the short term average is going down so fast that it crosses the long term average, and the price is way above the two, isn't that a useful bit of information to know(that's a death cross). Perhaps you don't want to bet your entire life savings on this information, but it's also an exaggeration to claim that finding averages has no statistical merit.
If you then look into things, you'll find a lot technical indicators are derived from simple statistics and especially averages. Consider the very popular MACD, or Moving Average Convergence Divergence. A lot of people like that one, including myself, and it's made some people at least a little bit of money.
For me technical analysis is like the icing on the top of a very tasty fundamental analysis cake. You don't want a cake that's only icing, but if you do get the icing just right, then you can sell your cake for quite a bit more money.
I almost told my job that I simply couldn't do it because of housing and suspect we are leading into catastrophic employment shortage. Similar to how the climate is cooled temporarily by short-term weather patterns, I think our society will be temporarily "saved" by the recession, but when the economy starts running back at full there will be regions where you simply can't hire people to do certain jobs and any executives who cut jobs now will actually bankrupt their entire business a few years from now. I resent the situation I'm in every single day and do not feel like the extra work and responsibility is worth the compensation. I dream every day of being laid-off and will gladly walk away from the whole thing once my contract is up. There needs to be incentive to continue and I just don't really see that any longer.
There's something about the way you phrased this that just made me just realize there's a very real possibility that the internet could turn into television part two. If you think about the most popular platforms, they are mostly video and now the other very popular ones are trying to follow in kind. There's also all the streaming platforms that are not really thought of as the internet, but work basically the same. It really might be that the internet as we think of it--text based--might be a bit of a niche interest (not that this is necessarily a bad thing).
https://lebronwire.usatoday.com/lists/team-usa-basketball-ev...
That's not to say getting a career will stop you from having miserable thoughts. I'm not sure why it's the case, but some people are just more miserable than others. I fantasized deeply about blowing my brains out all morning, for example, just because I had double-booked two clients in the morning and didn't know how I was going to handle it--luckily one of them cancelled, so I'll live to see another day.
In other words, a career might not solve all your problems. Many people here have suggested therapy, and though I don't personally believe in therapy as I think it's a way to enforce compliance to an increasingly dysfunctional society, it's probably the right advice for both you and also me.
Therapy aside, I would like to give you advice about how to salvage your resume after more than a decade out of the workforce.
The key to this is community colleges that have work placements. Here in Canada, those are called co-ops and they are a really good deal. If you do everything right, and get all the bursaries available, you'll likely make a small profit on your college career, rather than lose money--but that's in Canada, and it could be different in other countries.
The great thing about co-ops is that they put applicable experience on your resume where you had none before(1). And if you need more, many community colleges also have additional year-long certificates co-ops (in Canada they are called graduate certificates) that can give you even more applicable work experience.
After just two years and 3 co-ops, all my NEETING days had finally disappeared and my resume now looks stacked.
Something that is important, however, is you pick something that actually has jobs. That narrows down your choices quite a bit, and it's mostly going to be IT related, but it could also be trade related, like a line man or even getting your CDL (commercial truck drivers license).
I would even suggest not going into IT, if your battling with your own mind, as it requires a lot of mental fortitude to consider systems and code and humans not doing what you thought they would do--that's a big trigger for the miserable among us, I suspect.
I would actually suggest lineman instead. Think of the freedom and the fresh air and the lack of clients. It's not such a bad future, once you dig into it. And please don't do anything stupid. There's still lots of life to live.
1--It's also a different hiring process than finding a regular job, and it's understood that you don't yet have experience when you talk with potential employers.