akrolsmir

Agreed re: automatically running Pangram, maybe once the articles hit some vote threshold (or just, frontpage) in case cost is a concern.

I think aggregators running AI checks automatically seems quite good, rather than individual readers all doing it on their own sporadically. We recently implemented auto Pangram checks on Manifund, and I think LessWrong has done this for a while now.

Hey! Surplus is a new incubator I'm organizing, partly as a love letter to early YC. A specific, early YC that I’ve only experienced vicariously: first through PG’s essays, more recently The Social Radars podcast.

(When I hear about Paul cooking chili for early batches, or Jessica delivering air conditioners by hand, I think, “yes, this, this is what I want”.)

Today, YC is like Harvard: an institution whose approval confers prestige, who curates a network of formidable alumni. That’s valuable, but I long for something else; something bespoke, thoughtful, loving. And since I want this thing myself, I’m betting that other founders do, too — and so I’m taking a stab at making it.

Having started projects like Manifold, Manifund, Mox and Manifest, I hope I’m in a good position to help others with their fledgling projects!

Apply on surplus.dev, or ask me any questions you might have~

Hey! I'm Austin; I'm building better funding mechanisms at Manifund. One kind of grant I'm intrigued by are retroactive grants -- payment for good work, already accomplished.

VaccinateCA stood out to me as one examplar effort that could have used more funding, and as such a good target for such a retroactive grant. Would love to hear your thoughts!

Austin from Manifold here - cool to see this trending! I thought the structure of this prediction market was especially cool, as it forms a collaborative, crowdsourced puzzle challenge to generate the perfect prompt.

(I've personally bet yes, but not sure if that prediction is holding up...)

Yeah! I think of Metaculus vs Manifold a bit like NYT vs Twitter -- or to borrow another analogy, lawful good vs chaotic evil. But we're both great places to think about the future in a bit more structured way than pure punditry!

Yeah, agreed that the proposal has a whiff of "too good to be true". The applicant's track record looks fairly good, though (he's previously invested in my startup, Manifold Markets, and otherwise has an interesting history in many different domains).

I think if there's even a 1% chance that the intervention looks as good as promised, it'd be worth further study for the proposed costs.

Hey! Austin from Manifold here, thanks for the links! I wanted to note that our novel mechanism which we've termed "Maniswap" is indeed pretty cool, but for most intents and purposes a simpler Uniswap constant product market maker would already do quite well as a mechanism, with the advantage that it's really simple (explainable on the back of a napkin!)

Happy to chat more about prediction markets/AMMs, feel free to reach out to [email protected]

Hey! Curious to get your thoughts on this. My girlfriend is interested in trying out more web programming; she's taken a couple of classes in C++ but no html/css/js yet. It's been a long time since I've looked at the state of online tutorials for learning to code, and I'm curious what the best resources are nowadays - since picking any one feels like a decent-sized commitment of a few dozen hours, I'd like to hear what people have to say.