ajafari1

Will Tesla, Waymo, Cruise, or some other company be first to mass commercialize robs-taxis? What are your thoughts?

Many people think the company with the best AI will win the self-driving race. However, AI is only one of many competencies needed for success. Winning is about taking a holistic approach through vertical integration and seeding an ecosystem. From this systems-thinking view, the clear winner is Tesla—by millions of miles.

I updated the post to make it more clear, thanks for feedback.

Entire movie? 75% chance sometime this decade. 25% early next decade.

Every once in a while a revolutionary technology comes along that changes everything. While entrepreneurs are focused on Deep Learning applications, futurists are focused on artificial general intelligence (AGI). But literally, no one is talking about the era that’s sandwiched between them with incredible potential. A new era is rising with the AI-job suite.

OpenAI estimates that Github’s Copilot can already complete 37% of coding tasks. DeepMind’s AlphaCode is estimated to be 59% better at coding competitions than Codex. Will automation start in 2023?

I see where you are going and may I suggest this thought experiment: let's say there is a team of 4 developers. AI automates 50% of their work, but there is still a lot of fine-tuning and certainly a lot of time in meetings with co-workers. But, this team has more free time so their company gives them more work. Great, so they are still working at capacity now. However, let's suppose AI gets to 80% automation, and there is no more additional work their company can offer them. That's when one or two, or more of them are at risk of losing their jobs.

Yes, you correctly point out that high cost is a big factor. The other factor in why labor-intensive jobs are difficult, is that robotics has lagged far behind AI software. Even if Tesla or others mass produce robots starting in 2025 or 2030, it will take a very long time before there is enough robots to satisfy the labor-intensive demand globally. Thanks for your readership!

OpenAI estimates that Codex (what powers Github’s Copilot) can already complete 37% of coding tasks. DeepMind’s non-commercial AlphaCode is estimated to be 59% better at coding competitions than Codex. But how close are we to automation? There is a huge demand for developer jobs currently. In light of OpenAI’s DALLE-2 commercialization announcement yesterday, here is a new cross-disciplinary approach to determine how close we are to automation.

After reading the article how close, or far, do you think we are from software development jobs getting automated?