adam
Joined 20 years ago
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Member since
Oct 11
Founder of 2 Y Combinator-funded startups in 2006 and 2011.
Now founder of Cultivate Labs https://cultivatelabs.com
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Comment · 1 month ago
Every forecast question we ask has a verifiable outcome. We then score it based on what actually happens in reality and create a track record for all of it. In typical analysis, nothing is scored, and no one goes back and checks if it was right or wrong, but we do - whether we're scoring humans in human forecasting exercises, or seeing how AI does.
Comment · 1 month ago
Not exactly - all the forecast questions get scored so we know how accurate the AI is and how calibrated it is. It's no different than asking a large crowd of humans on Good Judgment Open or Metaculus these same types of questions. Everything we ask eventually happens or it doesn't, and we can score it all.
Comment · 1 month ago
In this model the probabilities were measured by an ensemble of LLM's. We give them context and ask them to follow a specific methodology for making a forecast, and then aggregate their forecasts into a "crowd" forecast. We can get input from humans as well to compare/combine them further, but in this particular instance I just used our AI Forecaster.
You're right that a human analyst - especially a very experienced one - is going to be able to still do a better job of analysis most of the time, but the AI is useful for having loops to re-examine the question, consume and curate new information, etc. We've built the system with that assumption: let humans do what they're best at, let AI do what it's best at...
Comment · 2 years ago
Congratulations on the launch. We sell B2B crowd forecasting software, a fairly niche market, so something like this could be very interesting for us. We sell mostly into governments, think tanks, and other types of research institutions, with the occasional commercial application. A couple thoughts:
Perhaps I didn't do something correctly, but I ended up with a list of companies. That saves me a little time, but I want to be able to then get to something role-based. Is this behind the upgrade or do I never see this information?
Related, I want role to be one of my primary filtering mechanisms. Find me all Chief Risk Officers in x,y,z industry for companies larger than 500 people, for example. Then let me review their backgrounds, get their contact info, and contact them.
I think this is how many sales people / founders operate to try and start to sell. What am I missing?
Comment · 3 years ago
We run a public crowdsourced forecasting site for the government here: https://inferpub.com. For our various stakeholders, we're using ChatGPT to summarize forecaster's rationales for their probabilistic forecast. We ask it to both summarize the arguments for the event happening, and against. We still need a human in the loop given who the information it's going to, but it's been an excellent starting point.
Comment · 4 years ago
Somewhat similar conversation going on in the /r/chicago subreddit. Top comment from that thread[1]:
Anthony Bourdain is a far superior wordsmith than myself, so I will leave this here:
Here are Bourdain’s most memorable quotes about Chicago.
“I’ve done shows in LA, but LA’s a fantastic sprawl. San Francisco? A great town. New Orleans? A state of mind. Chicago? Chicago is a city.” — No Reservations, 2009
“Chicago is big — not just any kind of big — I’m talking major metropolis big. I love this city. In my opinion, it’s the only other real metropolis in America.” — No Reservations, 2009.
“You wake up in Chicago, pull back the curtain, and you KNOW where you are. You could be nowhere else. You are in a big, brash, muscular, broad shouldered motherfuckin’ city. A metropolis, completely non-neurotic, ever-moving, big hearted but cold blooded machine with millions of moving parts — a beast that will, if disrespected or not taken seriously, roll over you without remorse.” — Medium essay for Parts Unknown, 2016.
“It is, also, as I like to point out frequently, one of America’s last great NO BULLSHIT zones. Pomposity, pretentiousness, putting on airs of any kind, douchery and lack of a sense of humor will not get you far in Chicago. It is a trait shared with Glasgow — another city I love with a similar working class ethos and history.” — Medium essay, 2016
“Chicago is a town, a city that doesn’t ever have to measure itself against any other city. Other places have to measure themselves against it. It’s big, it’s outgoing, it’s tough, it’s opinionated, and everybody’s got a story.” — Parts Unknown, 2016
[1] https://www.reddit.com/r/chicago/comments/vlxv9m/comment/idx...