WhiteDawn

Another attraction for publishers was (historically) a much lower adoption of piracy.

Part of the sales pitch is you need more than just a torrent client to pirate.

Now in the world of AI I think this moat is evaporating. Hypervisor exploits are dropping like rain and determined individuals can vibe code a reasonably performant emulator in a couple of weeks.

In that world the only reasonable edge you have left is high prestige exclusives and merchandising/physical sales.

Nintendo has this cornered, one of the few companies who can pull off a rabid fan base buying a console they already own because this time there’s a triforce on it.

Meanwhile Sony and Microsoft are diluting their own IP and going full digital. Writing is on the wall if you ask me.

Yeah, 2000 years sounds like a lot till you do the math. Apparently astra was trained on 100k Blackwell gpu’s. So just over 7 days to crack 1028-bit rsa on that cluster…

Not to sound like a mark, I try to not get attached to any of these providers.

I've jumped between copilot, claude, gemini and chatgpt since the start of the year. chatgpt wasn't even worth looking at early this year.

Anthropic has the smarter models for sure, and seems to be default in corporate. However, the amount of budget you get with GPT as a user is much better, the harness feels more polished, and the models are faster. They are also much nicer to work with, I can just read the output for the most part. With claude I get pages of text and need to skim to find where the actual information i need to care about lies. So much more cognitive overhead.

Sol is smart enough for anything I've thrown at it, it's not one-shotting like fable, but I'm more willing to actually go back and forth with it, and it's likely producing better output to keep a human in the loop rather than trying to solve the world independently and making multiple incorrect assumptions.

I think GPT sees the market changing and is correctly repositioning themselves. Anthropic is down the wrong road, and if they don't correct course quickly I'm sure many of those enterprise contracts will start pivoting.

This is all great to get full unfettered access to your own system, as life should be.

I’m sure Xbox and PlayStation security groups are a little nervous right now though. Getting ring-0 on those machines is near impossible, but once you do then everything else becomes wide open

I hope in my lifetime we discover a way to predict earthquakes better, the danger to life from them would be significantly less if there was sufficient notification.

We can alert for storms, tornadoes, volcanoes, hurricanes, typhoons, and even somewhat extraterrestrial disasters like asteroids.

The earth itself must move in predictable patterns similar to the weather, and I'm sure there is decades of research around this I'll never even approach to understanding. Just surprising to have such a big knowledge gap that affects humanity year round

In fairness, games didn’t start employing encryption on the content till the 7th generation. So unless you’re applying ips patches to a 360 game you’re not breaking any DRM

Playing the title you backed up and patched is a different matter entirely

It will be a push and pull and I'm curious where we'll be in a couple of years.

I can fly at 100mph if I let AI run loose and with a bit of steering I can get it to output what I'm looking for and generally pass verification and tests.

If I care about the code though, and I want to keep it maintainable, the amount of time and tokens I need to spend correcting and iterating on the output quickly eats through much of the initial time I saved, to the point where I'm unsure if I'm actually saving much time at the end of the process.

With hobby projects I lean on quality more, and the async nature of AI also makes this much easier to make progress without needing my full attention to do so.

In the corporate world, there's both the pressure to accelerate with AI, but also maintain code and product quality. The dials of one way or the other are more obvious now, but I don't believe it's possible to do both with the current models and harnesses without exponential cost.

What is interesting though, is I'm now leaning towards faster models rather than smarter ones.

Intelligence lets me bite off larger chunks of work at once, and trust the model to behave without having to watch it intensely, but doesn't seem to drive down the number of iterations required to hit my desired quality.

Faster models means the iterations I'll have to go through regardless will complete much faster and gets me closer to a proper flow state. Models will keep improving, but maybe we're getting near "smart enough" and the race will pivot to performance > intelligence.

Clearly hyperscalers are seeing datacenter commitment exceeding demand, and are now running PR campaigns to have the public push back against construction to get them out of their contracts.

Joking conspiracy theories aside, perhaps the over-commitment was part of the plan with the expectation that there will be rejections from government

Thank you for the link to the post. It was a fascinating read and also entertaining.

After seeing the story of the fruit fly brain simulation I figured stuff like the nematode would be trivial.

The lack of active plasticity in LLMs causes a lot of frustration imo. Having agents make the same mistakes over and over and not be able to correct course without prompt engineering is the biggest symptom.

Obviously a static mind is more helpful from a performance perspective, especially if you consider model deployments into gateware.

Maybe this will be an inherent limitation to LLMs that won’t be solvable without a new approach.

It’s true, but hosting prices are still within spitting distance of rolling it yourself.

SOTA providers are expecting some level of margin. Companies everywhere have a tight eye on their AI bills right now.

The motivation is there if the models get good enough, even if it’s more painful.

Once someone generates a MTP layer for 26B A4B 4 QAT I'll be singing from the hills with my 5 year old GPU.