Recent submissions

Comment · 4 years ago
It's not just that people weren't warned, it's that we were presented with a bunch of a priori reasoning about why mRNA shots couldn't possibly have this effect. So it raises the question, which of the other assertions (which were not backed by long term clinical data, because none existed) were also wrong?
Comment · 4 years ago
Comment · 4 years ago
Comment · 4 years ago
I would still be more focused on DeFi and maybe large leveraged positions like Saylor's over Tether, which is ultimately backed by Bitfinex, a highly profitable crypto exchange which is probably still doing decent volumes during this down wave. If Tether does fail it might very well come toward the tail end of crypto price declines, when trading volumes have dried up and the incentive to prop it up is gone.

Bitcoin has only just reached its marginal cost of production. The dynamics of Bitcoin are probably different (it doesn't take years to shut down or spin up a mine), but when they enter bear cycles, many commodities will trade below the marginal cost of production for years. The marginal cost of production itself could also fall if energy prices decline from here.

Comment · 4 years ago
> you can have a lot of bananas from Honduras if your society can make great apps that Hondurans love and willing to trade their bananas

Yes, or alternatively, you can live in a society which uses coups, death squads, and puppet dictators to keep Honduran labor cheap.

Comment · 4 years ago
Throughout bitcoin's entire existence, the Federal Reserve and central banks globally have been in a posture of monetary easing and accommodation. There may be some reason to believe this crypto winter will be deeper and longer than the prior ones, and that the absurd heights of Ponzi speculation that were reached this time will not be seen again for a long time, if ever.
Comment · 4 years ago
> might reduce the time they can spread it to more at risk people or possibly reduce the viral load

That the vaccines could do this (especially for the new variants) was never demonstrated in any rigorous randomized controlled trials whatsoever, and if anything the experience of highly vaxxed countries and jurisdictions (hello, Bay Area!) suggests that they are actually increasing the rate of infection. It's possible that the main effect of the vaccines is to suppress immune response, which helps prevent the immune-induced cytokine storm which leads to severe disease, but also allows for higher asymptomatic viral loads.

The reference to "inconvenience" shows you are really either unfamiliar or obtusely dismissive of the skeptics' reasons for declining COVID vaccines.

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