HONEST_ANNIE

The Brazilian Amazon rainforest released more carbon than it stored over the last decade.

Hanson’s model is an ecological model. It assumes that modeled entities don’t reflect the model and respond to it. With intelligent agents simple ecological modelling may not work. You need to use game theory and strategic thinking.

Assuming intelligent aliens, they know this model.

Assuming stable state alien civilizations, they have countermeasures.

Grabby Aliens might discover immune system against cancer-like civilizations growing without limit. It should hit them early before they are metastasized.

Grabby Aliens might foresee immune system even before they encounter resistance. They might try stealthy expansion, gradual probing first strategy, or modify their behavior in order to survive, .... and so on.

Every Kurzweil's prediction that came true is riding on the advances with semiconductors and networking. Even many of the true predictions are 'on the way' in the sense that they exist but the impact for the society is not there.

Only 2 of them rely on advances in machine learning (real-time translation of foreign languages, personal assistant).

Most of these are consumer tech or interaction with computer advances. Two predictions about education are nice.

All predictions about advances in biotech, medicine, nanotech, etc. have failed.

Good selection. 'Return from the Stars' is more relevant today than it was when it was written. Its a story about sociocultural evolution and Lem clearly has a deep insight.

(the book has tablet computers and e-paper too).

> I realized that the world in which Hillary won wouldn't be a happy world either. Because all of the drivers of the stress we feel today — minus one — would still be very much be present."

TV show The Good Fight Season 4, Episode 1 "The Gang Deals with Alternate Reality has brilliant dark humor take on alternate reality where Hillary Clinton won the election.

spoiler alert ---

(spoiler: Liberal lawyer Diane wakes up in alternate reality where Trump lost, but #MeeToo did not happen. She is representing Harvey Weinstein who is big donor for liberal causes and connections to the WH)

It's bad in the same sense as "No true Scotsman" singles out the Scotsmen.

Selecting easy to remember overly specific representatives is just way human mind works.

What is more immediate problem to solve: AI-to-Zuck or AI+Zuck alignment?

1) AI-to-Zuck alignment problem: Align AI to it's master(s).

2) AI+Zuck alignment problem: Align AI and it's master(s) to the rest of the humanity.

Zuck is just stand-in variable name for any tech billionaire CEO, corporation or governing body, could be people running OpenAI, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, China or Pentagon. 2) seems like the problem for humanity and 1) as the problem for Zuck.

The book 'The Space Merchants' (1952) from Frederik Pohl and Cyril M. Kornbluth describes this type world.

World is run by ad companies (FB, Google,...) who select political leaders. People have to be careful on the street not to be trapped by highly aggressive ads.

As I said in other comment illegality increases harmful effects. Culture among users is also important factor.

Adderall is the new reintroduction of meth into the society.

Illegality increases harmful effects.

Methamphetamines were used legally long time before they became illegal. Paul Erdős was probably the most famous (amphetamine and methylphenidate) user. Using meth when studying was also common.

Methamphetamine derivatives have reentered the society in the form Adderall and other drugs.