EngineerBetter

Yes. Admittedly they both work in bars/breweries.

It'd be interesting to see the experience of folks in continental Europe, where I gather wine with meals is much more commonplace.

It's worth pointing out that AWS does now support U2F, which isn't reflected in the posts.

Apologies - I updated the post today to include the commit signing, and didn't think about the date of the parent post.

I'm a very strong Concourse proponent. We've been using it exclusively for three years, and it's better than anything we've experienced that our customers use (I run a consultancy).

We run Concourse London User Group, and the first few instances were like some kind of Jenkins survivor's support group.

It also makes things more comfortable - you can stretch and change position on long drives. In three hours of motorway driving on Sunday, I was only driving for about three minutes - the rest was Autopilot.

I drove from the UK to Ålesund, Norway and back in a Model X, which was about 1,300 miles in each direction. Did it on the way home with two kids in the back.

Long trips in a Tesla are totally doable.

> If you could actually predict the future you should invest in the lottery, not in software.

Hear, hear!

Estimates seem to be a common topic in replies.

If you can accurately estimate how long a software task will take, you should have already made a reusable component or automation to generate that code.

Estimates are meaningless. I've seen PhDs waste endless hours faffing with estimate-calculating spreadsheets.

Fundamentally, the universe is unpredictable. Chaotic and complex systems require their starting conditions to be measured to an infinite level of precision to be predictable. The Heisenberg principle means this is, as far as physics can tell, impossible.

On a more practical macro level, a complex adaptive system becomes unpredictable once three feedback loops are present (the three body problem is related).

Modern computer systems are unpredictable because we cannot predict the interplay between levels of abstraction.

It does not matter how smart you are. Unless you have perfect knowledge of all levels of abstraction in the system below you, even in a macroscopic sense you cannot predict the future. Precise estimates will be inaccurate.

Confidence ranges and superprobabilities are of some use. Discrete and precise estimates are an utter waste of time at best, and are dangerous and misleading at worst.

EDIT

Written on a mobile waiting for plane take-off, hence lack of citations. For more on complex adaptive systems, I recommend the works of Murray Gell-Mann and the research output of the Santa Fe Institute, particularly Scott E. Page.

Indeed, and the Scrum-Industrial Complex has vested interests in codifying a certain format that it can sell.