ClassAndBurn

Three issues, all compounding on each other, cause this. Poor foresight, overproduction, changes in youth drinking, and too much focus on small vintners.

There is a gut after production was ramped up during the COVID-19 pandemic. Everyone saw the trend line jump and assumed it wasn't a century-level event but a new trend that would last forever. Vines take a few years to start producing, if you swap or plant new acres you don't see the grapes for ~5 years. Which is now!

The US wine industry has tried for years to get younger drinkers. There is a strong relationship: the younger someone starts, the more time their palate has to develop, and the more likely they are to regularly buy more expensive wines.

The issue is they suck at it and regularly shoot themselves in the foot. I've seen party buses with kegs at tastings, which get people there but barely connect them to wine. Wineries are far, expensive (oh my god, tasting fees. They used to be excited you drove to them. They'd pour you anything. Now it's 2-3 bottles worth of $$ to walk in the door), and have special "rules" and social cues. The barrier to entry is high, and the old people who currently spend the money like it that way. So the audience is aging out.

There are 400-600 individual wineries in Sonoma and Napa. Each. Paso isn't far behind. It's just too many. How do you even choose the 2-6 you go to on a day trip to try them out? Let alone remember them in stores. There won't be consolidation like in other industries, because the brands of all the small fish are so diluted it's not worth acquiring.

There is a saying that "the best way to turn a large fortune into a small fortune is to buy a winery." And holy hell, did a ton of people do that. These small wineries don't make a profit, its a hobby for dozens to hundreds of people. They want the status, even if it costs them. So the market doesn't have clear signals for production and how to self-limit.

The fourth reason is that wineries don't grow grapes anymore. The industry is split into growers and vintners. Growers can take care of large agg with scale. Makers can choose à la carte what grapes they want that year. It's not a bad system and has enabled most of the smaller-scale wineries to launch without going totally bankrupt.

But now there are bag holders, and no one to buy their wares. If growers go out of business, there are no grapes to buy. Since Trump came in, they have already had issues getting labor. Costs have gone up, and no practical automation is available.

I believe there are separate issues with youth drinking, mostly around the risk involved in being inebriated and having a conversation or action come back to haunt you. Kids today live in a panopticon like my age never did. I can't say that I would be willing to open up the same way in today's environment.

What if agents had their version of PostSecret?

He will always be the Pirate in Muppet Treasure Island to me. Thanks for everything you gave the world

It's likely smart enough. It just needs to be told to do it and provided the ability to introspect it. How close could foundational models get to building this harness if explicitly prompted to?

We've only just started training models to use tools. Next, we'll train them to build them. Harness engineering is an ephemeral art.

Any custom harness for a problem shows that harness engineering is going away. Eventually models will introspect problems, then build custom harnesses tailored to that. Then use and modify the ephemeral harness as required.

Sol Ultra style is the path forward. The models are smart enough to self serve their tooling and processes. Given a problem they can figure it out and ask for directions when needed.

Uncharted island found. Charted.

Any non-digital system you describe "as Code" is not a source of truth, but a Source of Hope. The code describes the intended state, something has to reconcile it with reality.

This is the same as having it in unstructured documents. Which means the auditing is still required funny enough.

So yes, this could be done. I'd love to see what run in the CI/CD for a change. When someone works on the wrong thing, or breaks compliance IRL, how do you backport it into this? "Alice is a software engineer, and created this SaaS account with her email when the company was founded. The admin email can not be changed and she has admin even though another role should control that"

They will have to update the openai. Com footer I guess

Latest Advancements

GPT-5

OpenAI o3

OpenAI o4-mini

GPT-4o

GPT-4o mini

Sora

> Deprecating install.md

> Last Friday we announced install.md and it didn't see much adoption.

With thrash like this why would anyone adopt this for something serious?

It's just an .md file, so the overhead is low. The lack on conviction in your design does not inspire confidence though.

Nvidia sees the forest of the trees. The consequences of the US government buying steaks and Intel are that there will be Federal requirements for us companies using Intel. This is entirely about the foundry business. Nvidia is at risk when 100% of the production of its intellectual property occurs in Taiwan. They're more interested than anyone else in diversifying their foundry solutions. Intel has just been a terrible partner and totally disregards its customers. It's only because of the new strategic need for the US to have a foundry business that the government is saving until. NVIDIA is understandably supportive of this.

This will not be true for future frameworks, though it is likely true for current ones.

Future frameworks will be designed for AI and enablement. There will be a reversal in convention-over-configuration. Explicit referencing and configuration allow models to make fewer assumptions with less training.

All current models are trained on good and bad examples of existing frameworks. This is why asking an LLM to “code like John Carmack” produces better code.. Future frameworks can quickly build out example documentation and provide it within the framework for AI tools to reference directly.

There's an awkward reckoning in open source software about inclusivity and protecting the long-term security of projects coming.

Authors from several countries were already suspicious, such as Iran. Anyone from Russia and China or unknown places are all potential risks now.

Combined with recent inclusive ideologies, it’s gonna cause hard conversations. There will be a furthering in segmenting the Internet. Why fight contributing to an open source project when you could fork it and contribute with your allies?

For true enemies, there’s no risk to licensing or copyright issues. You can merge changes from the original, no problem. China even falls into this as there’s a limited ability for US companies to litigate within the country.

People think the Network State is hot, but at the end of the day, the Internet still has borders.