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Comment by dustcoin

This analysis is only looking at the price of the S&P 500, not the total return. An investor that sits out half of the year will miss out on about half of the dividends paid, which are always positive.

EDIT: Here is a graph highlighting how important including dividends is: https://i.imgur.com/YZSq6K3.png

Another consideration is taxes. The short-term gains produced by selling after 6 months are taxed at normal income rates (or slightly higher), as is the interest from the "risk free" interest-paying investment held the other 6 months. Long-term capital gains and dividends are taxed at favorable rates.

parent dustcoin 11 years ago

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