It's hard to predict a small group. Reliably. The masses are easy. Wall Street and Madison Ave do it all the time. But in football (soccer); which is fast paced, unpredictable and where an individual can have major influence you have a cluster fuck. Anyone's prediction is just a guess.
Now baseball is another matter. A much more rigid game. Easier to predict.
You know, we see this all the time in politics. How many upsets over the years? The models need to be thrown out every year. But it's expensive. So the US media clings to their same old models and is "shocked" when an upset occurs. And then they usually search so fast for a reason, they miss the real reason in the process. Hollywood has been missing the mark too. They also need to throw out their models and start over. BADLY.
Anyway I sometimes wonder just how far away we really are from Asimov's "Psychohistory ".
Now baseball is another matter. A much more rigid game. Easier to predict.
You know, we see this all the time in politics. How many upsets over the years? The models need to be thrown out every year. But it's expensive. So the US media clings to their same old models and is "shocked" when an upset occurs. And then they usually search so fast for a reason, they miss the real reason in the process. Hollywood has been missing the mark too. They also need to throw out their models and start over. BADLY.
Anyway I sometimes wonder just how far away we really are from Asimov's "Psychohistory ".