This isn't just about having trouble with "edge cases", it's a fallacy to even think statistics are useful for predicting outcomes from such a small group where individuals have so much freedom to determine the outcome.
Statistics may generate interesting facts after an event but for populations of people as small as two soccer teams there's no way they can predict individuals' actions. Maybe it works better for baseball because each individual has a sufficiently narrow range of potential impacts, but in soccer each person can do relatively whatever they want at any time.
Statistics may generate interesting facts after an event but for populations of people as small as two soccer teams there's no way they can predict individuals' actions. Maybe it works better for baseball because each individual has a sufficiently narrow range of potential impacts, but in soccer each person can do relatively whatever they want at any time.