> "My advice is to attempt startups in the center of a confluence of macrotrends"
That's basically like saying "buy the winning lottery ticket" in my opinion. There are lots of eyes watching for macrotrends, and lots of people trying to capitalize on that. Identifying the trend is part of success, sure, but that's the easy part - the hard part is separating yourself somehow. Luck isn't the whole reason for that separation, but it's a significant part of it.
I do agree that many founders don't recognize their luck. To their credit though, I think they often emphasize the "work hard, be smart" part instead of saying "I knew I was better than all my competitors because..."
That's basically like saying "buy the winning lottery ticket" in my opinion. There are lots of eyes watching for macrotrends, and lots of people trying to capitalize on that. Identifying the trend is part of success, sure, but that's the easy part - the hard part is separating yourself somehow. Luck isn't the whole reason for that separation, but it's a significant part of it.
I do agree that many founders don't recognize their luck. To their credit though, I think they often emphasize the "work hard, be smart" part instead of saying "I knew I was better than all my competitors because..."