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Comment by codex

While I think it is much more useful to learn from others' success than others' failure (lessons from your own failures are invaluable), let's not forget selection bias. A lot of startup success is luck--or, in other words, factors outside of the control of the founders or their advisors.

Many, if not most, founders aren't even aware of these factors, don't appreciate them fully, or won't acknowledge them out of ego. In many cases the advice should be "work hard, be smart, and buy the winning lottery ticket."

My advice is to attempt startups in the center of a confluence of macrotrends; that will tilt the odds more in your favor.

parent codex 13 years ago

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