Models being capable is orthogonal to trillions of capital being incinerated.
Nasdaq 100 is down over $2.7T over the last month, so far. Still further to go. There are simply not enough earnings materializing to support the capital that has been invested. Google lost $500B in value over the last week because AI overviews, that don’t generate revenue, were cannibalizing search.
OpenAI has cut its funding target by $10B due to lack of enthusiasm by investors. Certainly, if you think AI is going to capture trillions of dollars of value, I encourage you to try to catch the falling knife. Radiologists won’t be replaced, dentists won’t be replaced, AI will get baked into their EHR or line of business app as a commodity. There will be efficiency gains, but not a revolution.
Al Enthusiasm Is Collapsing and Tech Earnings Just Made It Worse - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-31/ai-enthus... - October 31st, 2026
Tech Selloff Burns Al Dip-Buyers as Sector Slides for Third Week - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-30/ai-dip-bu... - October 30th, 2026
Gartner Survey Finds Only 13% of CIOs Say Their Enterprise Has Realized Significant or Transformational Value from AI - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50207881 - October 2026
Credit swaps and the bond market are more accurately pricing the future imho. Are capital managers smarter than HN? We’re going to find out. “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.”
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50303881
Ed is behind on model capabilities, but he’s correct it’s an irrational bubble, based on the financials and fundamentals, that will eventually end. Your similar comment from three months ago indicates you’re allowing faith and a belief system to conflict with reality: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49031793
Nasdaq 100 is down over $2.7T over the last month, so far. Still further to go. There are simply not enough earnings materializing to support the capital that has been invested. Google lost $500B in value over the last week because AI overviews, that don’t generate revenue, were cannibalizing search.
OpenAI has cut its funding target by $10B due to lack of enthusiasm by investors. Certainly, if you think AI is going to capture trillions of dollars of value, I encourage you to try to catch the falling knife. Radiologists won’t be replaced, dentists won’t be replaced, AI will get baked into their EHR or line of business app as a commodity. There will be efficiency gains, but not a revolution.
Al Enthusiasm Is Collapsing and Tech Earnings Just Made It Worse - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-31/ai-enthus... - October 31st, 2026
Tech Selloff Burns Al Dip-Buyers as Sector Slides for Third Week - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-30/ai-dip-bu... - October 30th, 2026
Gartner Survey Finds Only 13% of CIOs Say Their Enterprise Has Realized Significant or Transformational Value from AI - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50207881 - October 2026
Credit swaps and the bond market are more accurately pricing the future imho. Are capital managers smarter than HN? We’re going to find out. “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.”
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50303881
Ed is behind on model capabilities, but he’s correct it’s an irrational bubble, based on the financials and fundamentals, that will eventually end. Your similar comment from three months ago indicates you’re allowing faith and a belief system to conflict with reality: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49031793