On a small enough timeline over simple things like "piss in street zero fucks or find toilet?"
On long enough timelines involving too many variables; either other peoples waves vibrating through the economy or politics; all bets are off.
We tend to over estimate the future based on a lizard brain ability to estimate the next few moments; a handy survival tool when trying to determine if we recognize the noise we just heard behind a rock
Did you predict covid in 2020 from 1996? All human society stats are mutable and trend towards zero.
But Nostradamus and Hari Seldon type long range forecasting is fanatasy
On long enough timelines involving too many variables; either other peoples waves vibrating through the economy or politics; all bets are off.
We tend to over estimate the future based on a lizard brain ability to estimate the next few moments; a handy survival tool when trying to determine if we recognize the noise we just heard behind a rock
Did you predict covid in 2020 from 1996? All human society stats are mutable and trend towards zero.
But Nostradamus and Hari Seldon type long range forecasting is fanatasy