A cautionary note on backtesting (ie, assessing how trading strategies would have performed over a historical period in time).
If an a posteriori probability distribution is a good fit for historical events, it doesn't mean in any way it is going to fit future data points. It may or may not.
If an a posteriori probability distribution is a good fit for historical events, it doesn't mean in any way it is going to fit future data points. It may or may not.
Hence, use backtesting with care while trading.