1. It’s generally difficult to quantify such risks in any meaningful manner
2. Provision of any number adds liability, and puts you in a damned-if-does, damned-if-it-doesn’t-work-out situation
3. The operating surgeon is not the best to quantify these risks - the surgeon owns the operation, and the anaesthesiologist owns the patient / theatre
4. Gamblers quantify risk because they make money from accurate assessment of risk. Doctors are in no way incentivised to do so
5. The returned chance of 1/3 probably had an error margin of +/-33% itself
1. It’s generally difficult to quantify such risks in any meaningful manner
2. Provision of any number adds liability, and puts you in a damned-if-does, damned-if-it-doesn’t-work-out situation
3. The operating surgeon is not the best to quantify these risks - the surgeon owns the operation, and the anaesthesiologist owns the patient / theatre
4. Gamblers quantify risk because they make money from accurate assessment of risk. Doctors are in no way incentivised to do so
5. The returned chance of 1/3 probably had an error margin of +/-33% itself