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Comment by rda2

Those rates and risks are meaningless without a baseline, as Einstein and 28 other Nobel Prize Winners may agree.

If you're familiar with the early retirement community, the simplest strategy is withdrawing a fixed percentage of your initial retirement portfolio, adjusting for inflation every year. For an 100% equities portfolio, these are the odds of success over a 30 or 60 year horizon[0] when backtested against Shiller's total real return data from 1871-2018

4%/30 year: 97%

4%/60 year: 89%

3%/30 year: 100%

3%/60 year: 100%

Hence my comment about spending a little less or saving more - 4% to 3% makes a massive difference in success rates. I'm sure you've done some backtesting of your offerings, and hopefully would be able to share some withdrawal amount vs success rate comparison, even if it's not an identical time period/comparison.

[0]https://earlyretirementnow.com/2016/12/14/the-ultimate-guide...

parent rda2 1 year ago

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