> Moore waited at least five years [1] before deriving his law.
OpenAI has been around since 2015. Even if we give them four years to ramp up, that's still five years worth of data. If you're referring to the example he gave of token cost, that could just be him pulling two points off his data set to serve as an example. I don't know that's the case, of course, but I don't see anything in his text that contradicts the point.
> I don't think that it makes much sense to compare commercial pricing schemes to technical advancements.
OpenAI has been around since 2015. Even if we give them four years to ramp up, that's still five years worth of data. If you're referring to the example he gave of token cost, that could just be him pulling two points off his data set to serve as an example. I don't know that's the case, of course, but I don't see anything in his text that contradicts the point.
> I don't think that it makes much sense to compare commercial pricing schemes to technical advancements.
How about Kurzweil's plot [1]?
[1] https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/hires/2011/kurzweilfig.1.jpg