It's worth noting this is just one person's opinion, it's not an opinion of the Fed itself. The paper analyzes corporate profits on the basis of interest and tax rates alone, but ignores other monumental shifts in global markets over the past few decades like globalized supply chain networks. It's probably true that the efficiency gains from globalization have already passed their peak, but that would have as much of an impact on declines in profit growth rates as any other factor.
The article also ignores technology as a factor. If globalization is at its peak, automation is probably still in its infancy. Robotics and AI are rapidly advancing and it's going to have a substantial impact to supply chains and labor markets over the coming decades, regardless of what happens with interest rates.
The article also ignores technology as a factor. If globalization is at its peak, automation is probably still in its infancy. Robotics and AI are rapidly advancing and it's going to have a substantial impact to supply chains and labor markets over the coming decades, regardless of what happens with interest rates.