Comment by lz400

Honestly, that sounds completely arbitrary, especially the one about 1/75. It also ignores anything that would alter any thinking person's probability calculations in the real world. For example, if tomorrow the Chinese premier says that Taiwan belongs to China and starts amassing navies, the % wouldn't change. I'd personally much _much_ rather listen to a view from some scholar or expert in the geopolitical situation than these "base rate" calculations.