If you had witnessed the Wright brothers' first flight you would have had a hard time predicting that within 60 years we would be landing on the moon. And if you were playing computer games in the 1980s in a slow DOS box you could not have even imagined modern GPUs and modern games. Nor could we have predicted how far modern CPUs have come since the 1960s.
LLMs are a very new technology and we can't predict where they'll be in 50 years, but I, for one, I'm optimistic about it. Mostly because it is very much not GAI so its impact will be lower. I don't think it will be more revolutionary than transistors or personal computers, but it will be impactful for sure. There's a large cost of entry right now but that has almost always been the case for bleeding-edge technologies. And I'm not too worried about these private companies having total control over it in the long run. They, so far, have no moat but $$$ to spend on training, that's it. In this case it really is just math.
I think market forces will drive a breakthrough in training at some point, either mathematical (better algorithms) or technological (better training hardware). And that will reduce the moat of these companies and open the space up even more.
LLMs are a very new technology and we can't predict where they'll be in 50 years, but I, for one, I'm optimistic about it. Mostly because it is very much not GAI so its impact will be lower. I don't think it will be more revolutionary than transistors or personal computers, but it will be impactful for sure. There's a large cost of entry right now but that has almost always been the case for bleeding-edge technologies. And I'm not too worried about these private companies having total control over it in the long run. They, so far, have no moat but $$$ to spend on training, that's it. In this case it really is just math.
I think market forces will drive a breakthrough in training at some point, either mathematical (better algorithms) or technological (better training hardware). And that will reduce the moat of these companies and open the space up even more.