Comment by woodada

Yeah that's a common statistical fallacy -- if your goal is to predict the likelihood of AGI becoming a reality in a few centuries, what you really want is "of all the things medieval farmers thought would happen, how many ended up actually happening", not "of all the things that happened, how many did medieval farmers think of" While I don't have the exact numbers, if you used the correct formula, you'll find that P(AGI happening in a few centuries) to be in the range of "pretty friggin low"