> We will know EVs have arrived when Americans in the mountain west start trading their Subarus for Teslas.
No need to get the laggards onboard, you simply need to get to the inflection point where the petroleum supply chain is no longer sustainable (due to demand falling through minimum economic viable throughput). Still at least 10-15 years out, as the US accounts for ~35% global oil consumption. US EV uptake is still too early to see where the weakness is from well to pump, but those Achilles heels will appear eventually. Some consumers may not get the EV they want before they lose the gas stations nearby they have.
No need to get the laggards onboard, you simply need to get to the inflection point where the petroleum supply chain is no longer sustainable (due to demand falling through minimum economic viable throughput). Still at least 10-15 years out, as the US accounts for ~35% global oil consumption. US EV uptake is still too early to see where the weakness is from well to pump, but those Achilles heels will appear eventually. Some consumers may not get the EV they want before they lose the gas stations nearby they have.
Japan shows us the future in usual fashion: https://cleantechnica.com/2023/12/13/japanese-refineries-clo... ("Japanese Refineries Close As The Country’s Petroleum Consumption Falls")
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/how-el... ("How electric vehicles are accelerating the end of the oil age")