A Serbian emigrant here. There hasn't been 25 years of work to join EU. The actual work has been done between 2001 and 2004 and between 2008 and 2012. Since then, since the current governing parties are in power, there hasn't been anything done. They don't care.
For the first time I am actually concerned and I don't believe the de-escalation is a given. If you read the government tabloids, it's a frightening picture.
My current estimate is that it's about 50-50 chance that there will be a very short war, that will end up in Serbian defeat of course, and a probable exodus of the Serbian population of northern Kosova. It will also leave Serbia under Western/EU economic sanctions, renewal of the visa regime to Schengen, and an even tighter grip of President Vučić on the country.
I just hope NATO does us a favor and actually go all the way and occupies the country. That's the only way to neuter Serbia for a generation of two, and the only hope that I have for a return to normalcy.
For the first time I am actually concerned and I don't believe the de-escalation is a given. If you read the government tabloids, it's a frightening picture.
My current estimate is that it's about 50-50 chance that there will be a very short war, that will end up in Serbian defeat of course, and a probable exodus of the Serbian population of northern Kosova. It will also leave Serbia under Western/EU economic sanctions, renewal of the visa regime to Schengen, and an even tighter grip of President Vučić on the country.
I just hope NATO does us a favor and actually go all the way and occupies the country. That's the only way to neuter Serbia for a generation of two, and the only hope that I have for a return to normalcy.