Consider that this is just the beginning for LLMs, and GPT-4 is already somewhat magical. There’s no reason to believe that this already magical program can’t get exponentially better. Magic ^ X
It’s going to be a wild ride. Also consider that LLMs don’t have the “last 5%” problem that self-driving software has, where widespread use is currently untenable because humans still need to intervene and that poses safety problems. LLMs are very complimentary to a large breadth of human work, until they stop being complimentary and instead become a substitute.
Another thing I’ll say is, the investment in the already mind-blowing LLMs like GPT-4 is relatively puny, a fraction of the cost of building 1 skyscraper. What’s happening is that the market has been validated and much larger sums of $$$ are going to flood in, including into the research pipeline which can solve problems such as data “scarcity” for future AI.
Imagine a much smarter version of GPT-4, except constantly thinking like a human does (as opposed to prompt-response-wait-prompt-response…), constantly working towards some specified goal, and…placed in a robot body like those made by Boston Dynamics. That’s not even in the far future. It’s technically possible in 6-12 months.
Finally, looping back to self-driving - I think you’ve reached your conclusion too early there. Once the last 5% problem is solved for self-driving, it will be solved for everyone and forever and getting from point A to B on the road will forever be available to you by a robot chauffeur 24/7, forever deliver things to you autonomously, and improve supply chain/logistics by a lot, with downstream reduction in the price of delivered goods.
It’s going to be a wild ride. Also consider that LLMs don’t have the “last 5%” problem that self-driving software has, where widespread use is currently untenable because humans still need to intervene and that poses safety problems. LLMs are very complimentary to a large breadth of human work, until they stop being complimentary and instead become a substitute.
Another thing I’ll say is, the investment in the already mind-blowing LLMs like GPT-4 is relatively puny, a fraction of the cost of building 1 skyscraper. What’s happening is that the market has been validated and much larger sums of $$$ are going to flood in, including into the research pipeline which can solve problems such as data “scarcity” for future AI.
Imagine a much smarter version of GPT-4, except constantly thinking like a human does (as opposed to prompt-response-wait-prompt-response…), constantly working towards some specified goal, and…placed in a robot body like those made by Boston Dynamics. That’s not even in the far future. It’s technically possible in 6-12 months.
Finally, looping back to self-driving - I think you’ve reached your conclusion too early there. Once the last 5% problem is solved for self-driving, it will be solved for everyone and forever and getting from point A to B on the road will forever be available to you by a robot chauffeur 24/7, forever deliver things to you autonomously, and improve supply chain/logistics by a lot, with downstream reduction in the price of delivered goods.