Comment

Comment by revelio

Satellite data isn't that good unfortunately. Tide gauges say 1.5mm/year of rise, satellites say 3mm/yr, and they estimate satellite error to be +/- 0.5mm year, so the error bars are a significant fraction of the size of the overall change.

Also that assumes the scientists are completely accurate and don't make any mistakes. As recently as 5 years ago they discovered that the measured rise for almost all of the 90s was wrong and revised it by 3mm/year +- 1.7mm/year - the error was the same amount as the imputed level of rise!

This is no knock on the scientists, because measuring the height of a moving ocean from orbit to a level of accuracy that lets you see mm level changes is inevitably going to be very hard. But we should bear in mind that they're heavily biased towards wanting to believe the data is accurate. Their decade long inability to get the measurements correct didn't seem to have any impact on their confidence that they're currently getting it right, and why would it? Those who seize the data, seize the day.

parent revelio 3 years ago

Discussion

Live from the official Hacker News API

A modern reader for Hacker News · SvelteKit + Skeleton