It's amazing how hard it is for humans to understand compounding growth.
England's GDP has historically grown at 1.5-2.0%. That implies about 20% growth in a decade.
Let's say Brexit leaves GDP 2% lower than it currently is by the end of 2023. Now to grow 22% in 9 years (i.e. get back to even), they need 2.4% annual growth, which is a 20-60% acceleration sustained every year for 9 years just to get back to the baseline.
Less GDP today, in many ways, is less GDP forever.
England's GDP has historically grown at 1.5-2.0%. That implies about 20% growth in a decade.
Let's say Brexit leaves GDP 2% lower than it currently is by the end of 2023. Now to grow 22% in 9 years (i.e. get back to even), they need 2.4% annual growth, which is a 20-60% acceleration sustained every year for 9 years just to get back to the baseline.
Less GDP today, in many ways, is less GDP forever.