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Comment by Symmetry

Wait, did economists think at one point that the distribution of movements in a stock market followed a Gaussian pattern? I mean, amateur statisticians approximate things to Gaussian distributions all the time to make the math easier, but that's hardly a problem unique to economics.

As to the Omori distribution, have they actually succeeded in making forward looking predictions with it, or were they just fitting a model to past data? Even if it is a real phenomenon, I can think of a way to extract money from the market by making it go away off the top of my head, so I don't imagine it will last long now that it's been reported in public.

The parts about equilibrium models being taken too seriously are well taken, though.

parent Symmetry 15 years ago

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