The experts have never experienced an economy suffering from supply constraints in their lifetime. Just prior to the pandemic there was talk of how to do economics in a "post scarcity" world. That's how foreign of a concept supply constraints are.
Thanks to their advanced healthcare and pharmaceuticals, the West has largely put the pandemic behind them. Life has more-or-less returned to normal, meaning demand has more-or-less returned to normal. In fact demand has increased - there's pent-up demand from being on lockdown for two years. Bottom line - demand is up.
What about supply? Almost everything manufactured has at least one component manufactured in an East Asian country. Even if you're an American manufacturer you probably rely on at least one component coming from one of these countries. Significant portions of East Asian manufacturing is still locked-down due to the pandemic. There have been articles here on HN just in the past two weeks talking about, for example, American synthesizer companies going out of business because they can't get needed parts - parts that in some cases they ordered two years ago! Bottom line - supply is down.
What happens to prices when supply is down and demand is up? ECON 101 says they increase. Which they did. That increase has freaked out central banks who see the inflation as a need for fiscal policy intervention and raise rates. The U.S. dollar is trading at historic levels against the panoply of world currencies yet the Fed took action to make it even more valuable - incredible!
Maybe instead we should stop pretending the pandemic is over all over the world and start focusing on the impacts the still-continuing pandemic is having on supply chains. Just a thought.
Another thing - this is why Putin invaded the Ukraine now. With the global supply chain out of sorts this is the time that's allowed Putin to maximize the chaos and economic pain on the West should they attempt to retaliate. Putin wasn't stupid, he thought this one through. Putin knew he could throw the oil market out of sorts, the nitrogen fertilizer market out of sorts, the noble gas market out of sorts, and the world grain market out of sorts. Russia is waging economic warfare against everybody but the Middle East, China, and India. Stew on that one for a while.
Thanks to their advanced healthcare and pharmaceuticals, the West has largely put the pandemic behind them. Life has more-or-less returned to normal, meaning demand has more-or-less returned to normal. In fact demand has increased - there's pent-up demand from being on lockdown for two years. Bottom line - demand is up.
What about supply? Almost everything manufactured has at least one component manufactured in an East Asian country. Even if you're an American manufacturer you probably rely on at least one component coming from one of these countries. Significant portions of East Asian manufacturing is still locked-down due to the pandemic. There have been articles here on HN just in the past two weeks talking about, for example, American synthesizer companies going out of business because they can't get needed parts - parts that in some cases they ordered two years ago! Bottom line - supply is down.
What happens to prices when supply is down and demand is up? ECON 101 says they increase. Which they did. That increase has freaked out central banks who see the inflation as a need for fiscal policy intervention and raise rates. The U.S. dollar is trading at historic levels against the panoply of world currencies yet the Fed took action to make it even more valuable - incredible!
Maybe instead we should stop pretending the pandemic is over all over the world and start focusing on the impacts the still-continuing pandemic is having on supply chains. Just a thought.
Another thing - this is why Putin invaded the Ukraine now. With the global supply chain out of sorts this is the time that's allowed Putin to maximize the chaos and economic pain on the West should they attempt to retaliate. Putin wasn't stupid, he thought this one through. Putin knew he could throw the oil market out of sorts, the nitrogen fertilizer market out of sorts, the noble gas market out of sorts, and the world grain market out of sorts. Russia is waging economic warfare against everybody but the Middle East, China, and India. Stew on that one for a while.