Comment

Comment by jwarden

Priors are not just numbers between 0 and 1. They are probability distributions. If they were not, it would be impossible to update beliefs based on evidence.

My prior beliefs about the coin include the possibility that the coin has a bias other than 50%. This distribution may be centered at 50%, but I may assign more or less probability to extreme biases, and this determines how I update my belief when I observe several heads in a row.

parent jwarden 4 years ago

Discussion

Live from the official Hacker News API

A modern reader for Hacker News · SvelteKit + Skeleton