Wow, this is awesome - a podcast with a full transcript attached! At first glance I hadn't planned on listening to this, but I am certainly willing to skim the transcript.
Updated: Some very interesting stuff in here. A few poignant quotes from Grantham:
"But in my opinion, we are clearly beginning to run out of resources, cheap, plentiful resources." - on the primary reason for inflation.
"The stimulus program was so gigantic that it flooded into the AMCs and the meme stocks and and helped push this market into the levels that we have seen. And the speculations this time are much the biggest in the history of the stock market adjusted for the size of the GDP."
"[QuantumScape] sells last December--the December before last of 2020--at $130 a share, $55 billion market cap, bigger than GM for a battery research enterprise four years away from any sales, forget profits. Now, there is nothing of that scale in 1929. There's Pet.com with scores of millions, tens of millions, in one or two cases, hundreds of millions. This is $55 billion for a company that has no earnings for four years, no sales. And AMC multiplied by 40, 50 times in a month and becomes, in the case of the other one, GameStop, becomes by far the largest company in the Russell 2000, over 10% of its total, I think, market cap. This is just exceptional craziness."
It strikes me that Grantham is a classic rationalist, a very old school guy who is used to the way the markets have functioned for the past 100 years. However, he just doesn't really seem to GET the change in investing. Meme stocks, cryptos, etc. We live in an irrational, emotion driven market more now than ever before, and I hate to say it, but these old timers don't seem to get the picture and will probably get burned.
Updated: Some very interesting stuff in here. A few poignant quotes from Grantham:
"But in my opinion, we are clearly beginning to run out of resources, cheap, plentiful resources." - on the primary reason for inflation.
"The stimulus program was so gigantic that it flooded into the AMCs and the meme stocks and and helped push this market into the levels that we have seen. And the speculations this time are much the biggest in the history of the stock market adjusted for the size of the GDP."
"[QuantumScape] sells last December--the December before last of 2020--at $130 a share, $55 billion market cap, bigger than GM for a battery research enterprise four years away from any sales, forget profits. Now, there is nothing of that scale in 1929. There's Pet.com with scores of millions, tens of millions, in one or two cases, hundreds of millions. This is $55 billion for a company that has no earnings for four years, no sales. And AMC multiplied by 40, 50 times in a month and becomes, in the case of the other one, GameStop, becomes by far the largest company in the Russell 2000, over 10% of its total, I think, market cap. This is just exceptional craziness."
It strikes me that Grantham is a classic rationalist, a very old school guy who is used to the way the markets have functioned for the past 100 years. However, he just doesn't really seem to GET the change in investing. Meme stocks, cryptos, etc. We live in an irrational, emotion driven market more now than ever before, and I hate to say it, but these old timers don't seem to get the picture and will probably get burned.