Comment

Comment by bryanlarsen

The statement "Tesla market value is the same as everybody else put together" means either Tesla is expensive or everybody else is cheap or the statement is inaccurate. It's a little bit of all three.

All other car companies are primarily debt financed rather than equity financed. Ford's market cap is $45B, but because it has $120B in debt which means it is worth $120B to it's bondholders and $45B to stockholders for a total enterprise value of $160B.

So Tesla isn't worth as much as all of the companies put together, it's worth about as much as 2 or 3 of the big ones. Which is still a lot.

But all the other car companies are facing an existential threat. Climate change and the EV transition are going to be tough. That has to be depressing their valuations some.

Tesla also has a really good profit margin. If they can keep that up, it goes a long way to justifying their prices. Pretty big if, that one -- the general assumption is that it will go down as they go downmarket to chase volume. Vertical integration might let them keep it up, though. Think of it like Apple -- 20% market share but >80% of the profit.

What I'm saying is that if Toyota or Volkswagen had no debt, a Tesla level profit margin and no overhanging challenge like the transition to EV, they'd have a market cap similar to Tesla's.

That still doesn't justify Tesla's market cap, but it makes it seem less insane.

parent bryanlarsen 5 years ago

Discussion

Live from the official Hacker News API

A modern reader for Hacker News · SvelteKit + Skeleton