For the record, I've been what could accurately be called a climate change alarmist for over three decades now. More concretely, I've felt that there was a least a fair chance that climate change would, by the year 2070, cause enormous harm to human civilization, where 'harm' could be seen, in part, as over a billion premature deaths. Over the decades, my internal estimate of the odds has changed from "a small but statistically significant chance" to "more than 50%" today.
I've also been of the mind that, most likely, there's little chance that humanity will be able to substantially change these probabilities.
Yes, that's pretty doomy gloomy, on the surface at least.
"But the progress ... etc., is really remarkable. It ain't over 'til it's over."
This! We CAN NOT know what the future holds. A primary 'doomer movement' in the 1970s when I was growing up was population. Even among the most forward thinking, optimistic people of the time, few if any could imagine our planet being able to feed 8 billion people. None could imagine the possibility that the world population could naturally (without either huge die offs and/or draconian controls) stabilize at 10 billion people, which many solid models are now indicating. (And I get that there are valid arguments against the sustainability of our current and near future food production methods.)
The point is that we can not know what miracles technology and sociological progress can bring, and we're expanding in both areas exponentially. (I'm not using that word, exponentially, lightly or incorrectly.)
Is all of this 'hopium'? Perhaps. I agree with those that argue acceptance is important and healthy. Yes, accept that, from what we can see right now, things look very bad. Yes, accept that there's a strong probability that human civilization will collapse in the lifetime of Millennials. At the very minimum, all of the steps/hours/days between now and then will be interesting, and there's an unlimited amount of joy to be found and created.
I've also been of the mind that, most likely, there's little chance that humanity will be able to substantially change these probabilities.
Yes, that's pretty doomy gloomy, on the surface at least.
"But the progress ... etc., is really remarkable. It ain't over 'til it's over."
This! We CAN NOT know what the future holds. A primary 'doomer movement' in the 1970s when I was growing up was population. Even among the most forward thinking, optimistic people of the time, few if any could imagine our planet being able to feed 8 billion people. None could imagine the possibility that the world population could naturally (without either huge die offs and/or draconian controls) stabilize at 10 billion people, which many solid models are now indicating. (And I get that there are valid arguments against the sustainability of our current and near future food production methods.)
The point is that we can not know what miracles technology and sociological progress can bring, and we're expanding in both areas exponentially. (I'm not using that word, exponentially, lightly or incorrectly.)
Is all of this 'hopium'? Perhaps. I agree with those that argue acceptance is important and healthy. Yes, accept that, from what we can see right now, things look very bad. Yes, accept that there's a strong probability that human civilization will collapse in the lifetime of Millennials. At the very minimum, all of the steps/hours/days between now and then will be interesting, and there's an unlimited amount of joy to be found and created.