> Trying to frame it as "they modelled it wrong" is nonsense.
It's not that. It's that when the system you model responds to the existence of your model, it becomes anti-inductive. It's no longer like weather, but is now like the stock market[0]. Your model suddenly can't predict the system anymore[2], it can at best determine its operating envelope by estimating the degree to which the system can react to the existence of the model.
--
[0] - I use the term anti-inductive per LessWrong nomenclature[1], but I've also been reading "Sapiens" by Yuval Noah Harari, and there he uses terms "first order chaotic" for systems like weather, and "second order chaotic" for systems like the stock market.
It's not that. It's that when the system you model responds to the existence of your model, it becomes anti-inductive. It's no longer like weather, but is now like the stock market[0]. Your model suddenly can't predict the system anymore[2], it can at best determine its operating envelope by estimating the degree to which the system can react to the existence of the model.
--
[0] - I use the term anti-inductive per LessWrong nomenclature[1], but I've also been reading "Sapiens" by Yuval Noah Harari, and there he uses terms "first order chaotic" for systems like weather, and "second order chaotic" for systems like the stock market.
[1] - Introduced in https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h24JGbmweNpWZfBkM/markets-ar....
[2] - I think it becomes uncomputable in Turing sense, but I'm not smart enough to reduce this to the Halting Problem.