This seems unsurprising, and the correct way to model a situation like this to me.
"Lots of people could die if you keep behaving as you currently are"
"Okay, lets behave differently"
And then less people die.
Trying to frame it as "they modelled it wrong" is nonsense. What even is the point of predictions like this if not to change behaviour - predicting outcomes based on everyone taking precautions and not telling people what might happen if they don't would be dangerous and irresponsible.
"Lots of people could die if you keep behaving as you currently are"
"Okay, lets behave differently"
And then less people die.
Trying to frame it as "they modelled it wrong" is nonsense. What even is the point of predictions like this if not to change behaviour - predicting outcomes based on everyone taking precautions and not telling people what might happen if they don't would be dangerous and irresponsible.