> There is a 50% chance that a random person from that population can create a successful business... All 100 attempt to start a business. 50 succeed, 50 fail.
This is the most glaring wrong assumption that causes your and GP's confusion.
90+% of startups fail.
Note: "failure predicts failure but success does not predict success" could still be true even if business failure rates were >= 50%! But the fact that failure rates are higher than 50% is the first and simplest mistake in this line of reasoning.
This is the most glaring wrong assumption that causes your and GP's confusion.
90+% of startups fail.
Note: "failure predicts failure but success does not predict success" could still be true even if business failure rates were >= 50%! But the fact that failure rates are higher than 50% is the first and simplest mistake in this line of reasoning.