1. Take a population of 100 people. There is a 50% chance that a random person from that population can create a successful business (obviously 50% is a made up number)
2. All 100 attempt to start a business. 50 succeed, 50 fail.
3. The 50 that failed now have a 25% of succeeding in their future business endeavors. The 50 that succeeded apparently have the same 50% of success.
4. Now, given the same population, there is only a 37.5% chance that that a random person will succeed in their next business, which is in direct contradiction to point number 1.
I'm not entirely sure I did that right. I'm no statistician so there may be some glaring logical flaws there, but that seems correct according to my intuition.
1. Take a population of 100 people. There is a 50% chance that a random person from that population can create a successful business (obviously 50% is a made up number)
2. All 100 attempt to start a business. 50 succeed, 50 fail.
3. The 50 that failed now have a 25% of succeeding in their future business endeavors. The 50 that succeeded apparently have the same 50% of success.
4. Now, given the same population, there is only a 37.5% chance that that a random person will succeed in their next business, which is in direct contradiction to point number 1.
I'm not entirely sure I did that right. I'm no statistician so there may be some glaring logical flaws there, but that seems correct according to my intuition.
(edit: formatting)