> I keep finding I'm ready for 1 in 10 style events that other people don't see coming.
Surely if you’re ready for more than 10% of 1-in-10 events, your probabilities are just as wrong as other people’s; it’s just that your risk management is better.
That is why I don’t like probabilities for what are fundamentally one-off events.
Surely if you’re ready for more than 10% of 1-in-10 events, your probabilities are just as wrong as other people’s; it’s just that your risk management is better.
That is why I don’t like probabilities for what are fundamentally one-off events.